Francois said “It is unclear if this recapitalization is merely mopping up the losses of the past or if it is providing the cash needed for the next couple of years before they, hypothetically, break even."

Douglas said "Yes, if doubters argue that investment in creative and planning are a declining need. A bunch of things have happened through the pandemic: WFH accelerated the balance of ecommerce in retail (about five years of projected growth was delivered in a lockdown or two). Most tech platforms have had bumper years. Online advertising, strongly correlated with ecommerce, has grown enormously."

But people get fixated on one side of the story. The big tech companies spend big in offline and online media. Native businesses are not just relying on search and social: TV has grown strongly, adding more new advertisers to its roster than ever. New categories like crypto products have robust marketing budgets. Outsourcing was a wildly exaggerated trend, with many experiments quickly retreating. Companies are building sustainability, not just this week’s sales.

Tom said "Unless it's differentiated, it's going to be a very difficult sell," said Tom Harrington, head of television at Enders Analysis. UK households currently have just under two subscriptions on average, one of which is normally Netflix."

"These services by large are loss making, they are still in a growth phase, and they are being forced to spend ridiculous amounts on content, which isn't necessarily being returned from subscriber fees, which are artificially pushed down by Netflix."

He added "So there's a sort of a vicious cycle going on, and people are only taking two services, so there are going to be losers."

"How this goes is very important for the future of the company, and that's why they're going all in, although they are very late and it looks like a tough sell. But who knows? It's all very early and in a few years we'll know what the people want."

Tom said “Netflix is openly supportive of at least that first step. Netflix likes to be seen to be part of the local ecosystem. Even if some sort of watershed was introduced for streaming services, Netflix voluntarily age-rates its content and has children's-friendly profiles and parental controls, so it is probably better placed than any other streaming service for whatever changes are brought in.” 

To this end, explains Tom Harrington, head of television at the media research company Enders Analysis, Netflix employs scores of metadata analysts, also known as “taggers”, whose job is to watch programmes and films and categorise them. They log everything from actors and locations, to particular emotions, trends or narrative devices, and whether a series or film qualifies as “steamy”.

“Some of the tags used can be seen in weird and oddly-specific categories that might pop up on a user’s feed,” says Harrington. “This process means that connections can be found between pieces of content that outwardly may appear very different but which might both appeal to a single viewer.”

Claire said "Amazon's growth is significant, but their options to maintain this growth are also more limited than Google's or Meta's were."

"Amazon's ad revenue comes largely from search and product listings using first-party data based on consumer purchases; this isn't directly comparable to Meta, which has access to a much broader range of user data, nor with Google, which comfortably outcompetes Amazon's ad products. Google will retain the edge as the internet's general search destination, despite Amazon trying to displace it as the first destination for commerce search, while YouTube captures a more diverse range of user interests and can support a much higher ad load than Prime Video."

Karen Egan, an analyst at Enders Analysis, said the Iliad offer was attractive. “Take the money and run,” she said of Vodafone. “That’s a very full takeover multiple and it definitely includes a share of the upside from consolidation,” referring to improved market conditions for companies operating in a market with fewer competitors.

She added that a sale to Iliad could potentially “resolve Vodafone’s leverage issues”, noting that even a sale valuing the business at 5.2 times ebitda could cut Vodafone’s net debt-to-ebitda ratio from 2.9 times at the end of the first half of the year to around 2.65 times.

“For me, the United Kingdom is off the agenda for DAZN,” says Francois Godard, a senior media and telecoms analyst at Enders Analysis. “They have a small operation, which they have in several countries with second and third-tier sports rights, and they can carry on doing that. To sell directly to consumers, you need real scale because consumers won’t bother otherwise."

“If I were in the management in DAZN, I would not spend too much time worrying about the UK. I would have a country manager trying to do the best with what they have in the UK, because this territory will not drive their business at this point.

"Amazon is also growing and is likely to grow further in the UK as a sports broadcaster. In that context, DAZN had one opportunity and it did not work.

While most streamers are already spending enough to meet the investment obligations relatively easily, François Godard of Enders Analysis warned that may change.

“At some point in the future, where they are in a position they need to cut a bit and fall back on a more sustainable model, it becomes a burden,” he said. “The regulation has thrown sand in the engine.”