BT: Strong financials, but challenges still to come
BT continued to perform well financially in Q2, with revenue and EBITDA growth remaining robust, and full year cashflow guidance nudged up.
ARPU growth remained robust across fixed, mobile and Openreach, but subscriber growth was weaker, especially in mobile and Openreach, and this will become more of a concern if it persists.
Maintaining growth across retail divisions will be a challenge as the price rise effect wanes, especially in weak economic conditions, and while Openreach’s FTTP roll-out is going well, full success is still not assured.
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Social tariffs: On the edge of reason
21 July 2023Social tariffs have provided relief for some at a time of household income squeeze and otherwise unavoidable high inflation-driven telco price increases.
Adoption has risen but remains very low, limiting their effectiveness, and more widespread adoption would expose their shortcomings, with the risk of penalizing low cost operators and significantly increasing prices for non-adopters (by up to 20%).
A better approach might be to recognize that affordability issues are narrower but deeper than current social tariffs can address, with fuller, centrally funded subsidies targeted more narrowly at those most in need.
EE appears to be soft-launching split contracts—it will become the final UK operator to offer these deals.
Split contracts are popular and particularly useful for higher-end handsets as they allow consumers to pay off their device over a longer period, dramatically reducing their monthly payments.
Wider availability of split contracts will take some of the shine off O2 and Vodafone's offerings, having been a key point of differentiation for O2 for many years, and a driver of growth for Vodafone more recently.
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The outlook is bleak: price rise benefits are set to wane and then reverse, and weak volumes will feed through, with economic recovery needed for a return to sustainable growth.
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Growth is set to wane across the year as consumer price rise boosts start to re-contract out, leaving Openreach as the main growth driver for as long as the economic environment remains challenging.
Headline inflation-busting price increases of 14% mask effective increases averaging a sub-inflation 8%, due to their limited scope across the customer base and over time.
The high headline increases have led to attacks from political and consumer groups, we would argue unfairly, and may yet drive reputational damage.
Looking forward, inflationary increases may be banned, but we would expect higher fixed increases to replace them, and micro-regulating pricing structures does tend to result in unintended consequences.
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The economics of full-scale, independent alternative networks look very challenging in our view – especially without the support of Sky – although there are some limited arbitrage/cherry-picking opportunities.
The Openreach full fibre model makes economic sense under Ofcom’s proposed regulatory framework, provided it retains the lion’s share of the market, although considerable risks remain.