BT: The vultures circle
BT is in rude financial health, with strong short- and longer-term prospects arising from inflation-linked price rises next year and the FTTP investment J-curve in the years ahead.
BT’s traditional investors are however understandably sceptical, leading to interest from non-traditional investors and in alternative structures.
Changing the ownership and/or structure of BT involves significant operational, financial, political and pension fund-related issues, making a change of ownership in whole or part no easy panacea.
Related reports
BT: Resilient, with improving prospects
9 November 2021BT had a resilient Q2, beating consensus expectations with revenue growth improving and EBITDA only just declining despite a very tough comparable, and it reiterated its guidance for the full year.
Solid operation trends, strong cost control and inflation-linked price increases leave the company (and ourselves) extremely confident in prospects for next year.
Full fibre roll-out is also going well, with reduced costs and Sky/TalkTalk signing up to a pricing offer which will lead to accelerated adoption from next quarter, and an increasing unlikelihood of them signing up with others.
UK full fibre regulation: The mist clears…somewhat
18 March 2021Ofcom’s full fibre regulation statement, released today, is largely as trailed, i.e. it allows BT’s Openreach considerable relaxation of wholesale pricing in return for building out full fibre.
On the longer-term regulatory prospects, Ofcom continues to be fair but more obtuse than it could and should be, unnecessarily dampening investor enthusiasm. Ofcom will decide on a case-by-case basis whether to allow Openreach to offer geographic/volume discounts, using slightly contradictory principles.
The publication and increased certainty may allow BT’s Openreach to extend its full fibre roll-out further, faster or even with external financing. The build plans of others will come under increasing question.
Press reports that Sky is in advanced talks to co-invest in Virgin Media O2’s upgrade of its cable network to full fibre are something of a surprise, with a host of issues for both parties to carefully consider
The muted deal would be somewhat negative for BT (although limited by Sky’s c.15% market share in VMO2 areas and regulatory protections/upsides). It is, however, a stark reminder of the precarious economics of alternative networks such as CityFibre
Whether this makes VMO2 more likely to extend its network further is a more critical issue, certainly for BT
BT: Resilient, with improving prospects
9 November 2021BT had a resilient Q2, beating consensus expectations with revenue growth improving and EBITDA only just declining despite a very tough comparable, and it reiterated its guidance for the full year.
Solid operation trends, strong cost control and inflation-linked price increases leave the company (and ourselves) extremely confident in prospects for next year.
Full fibre roll-out is also going well, with reduced costs and Sky/TalkTalk signing up to a pricing offer which will lead to accelerated adoption from next quarter, and an increasing unlikelihood of them signing up with others.
UK full fibre regulation: The mist clears…somewhat
18 March 2021Ofcom’s full fibre regulation statement, released today, is largely as trailed, i.e. it allows BT’s Openreach considerable relaxation of wholesale pricing in return for building out full fibre.
On the longer-term regulatory prospects, Ofcom continues to be fair but more obtuse than it could and should be, unnecessarily dampening investor enthusiasm. Ofcom will decide on a case-by-case basis whether to allow Openreach to offer geographic/volume discounts, using slightly contradictory principles.
The publication and increased certainty may allow BT’s Openreach to extend its full fibre roll-out further, faster or even with external financing. The build plans of others will come under increasing question.
Press reports that Sky is in advanced talks to co-invest in Virgin Media O2’s upgrade of its cable network to full fibre are something of a surprise, with a host of issues for both parties to carefully consider
The muted deal would be somewhat negative for BT (although limited by Sky’s c.15% market share in VMO2 areas and regulatory protections/upsides). It is, however, a stark reminder of the precarious economics of alternative networks such as CityFibre
Whether this makes VMO2 more likely to extend its network further is a more critical issue, certainly for BT