Speed and pricing moves: UK mobile market in Q1 2026

BT hit its FY26 guidance with a particularly strong Q4 financial performance, which was buoyed by a number of one-offs.

Operating metrics were far from spectacular, but the company is outperforming its peers in tough markets, and Openreach’s line losses are on a clear (if potentially bumpy) downwards trend as altnet growth wanes.

Improving cashflows will still take some years to translate into rapid growth in shareholder returns given a conservative dividend policy, but the path is looking increasingly secure.

The share price reaction to Vodafone’s FY26 results appears to be centred around the outlook for European EBITDAaL in FY27, with consensus hitherto optimistically expecting a very marked turnaround in underlying performance.

Similarly, there should not have been an expectation of further buybacks, with prospective leverage towards the top of target range given recent deals.

Vodafone’s value over volume strategy cost it dearly in subscriber numbers in Q4 – a dangerous strategy in a scale industry. Less demanding guidance would give it more commercial flexibility

VMO2’s broadband and mobile segments both worsened in Q1 to decline at 3–4%, with altnets hitting the former and an over-publicised price rise change hitting the latter.

Subscriber trends however improved on both, with the broadband base notably reaching near stability as altnet pressure gradually recedes.

2026 will still be a tough year for the company, with service revenue/EBITDA guidance of a 3–5% decline for both looking realistic, but momentum thereafter is likely to be much improved

The low price, low quality vicious cycle in UK mobile is becoming ever more apparent in both revenue pressure and in network quality surveys.

Policymakers meanwhile demand better quality, coverage and resilience which will be tough to deliver without a more robust revenue outlook.

Without radical change, the government’s affordability priority looks set to win out over its growth one, driving the industry towards (self-reinforcing) sub-optimal outcomes for both consumers and growth.

UK mobile coverage/quality significantly lags that of its European peers; this really matters, for both consumers and the wider economy, and for both existing services and a range of potential new ones.

Improving coverage will likely require a variety of techniques, from antennas in space to antennas inside shopping centres, and fully utilising the entire range of available spectrum, from sub-1GHz to mmWave.

Network quality competition sparked by the VodafoneThree merger and network rebuild could drive improvements from all three operators, but significant government help is required to ensure this.

European service revenue growth declined to -1.3% in Q4 as trouble in France weighed even more heavily.

In contrast to a couple of years ago, the Italian and Spanish markets have the most positive momentum.

Network sovereignty is driving satellite direct-to-device strategies, and may cause some regret about mobile tower sales, which are also proving more contentious than hoped.