Tech & media in Q4 2025: AI diffusion and distribution angst

Major labels have announced a slew of AI deals designed to shape nascent technology on their own terms, and so avoid repeating the mistakes of the early streaming era.

AI music startups will relaunch their services this year enforcing labels’ red lines on copyrighted music. The music industry’s material impact on AI products is in stark contrast to video and news industry engagement.

Google’s decade-long interest in AI music is moving into action with the launch of Lyria 3 and the acquisition of ProducerAI as a leading exponent of advanced, AI-enabled music creation—YouTube remains a sleeping giant.

Disney’s decision to license to OpenAI’s Sora is necessary to regain agency in a consumer ecosystem dominated by rampant unlicensed IP usage. The deal reflects an ongoing pattern of opportunistic, equity-driven deals by Disney in high-profile technology categories.

Movie and TV content owners’ ability to replicate similar deals to protect their IP assets is limited by vague engagement pathways and opaque or non-existent revenue sharing models combined with dealmaking constraints at AI operators, some of which are developed in China.

Even within the parameters of a deal, the ongoing risk of a public display of malfunctioning guardrails with licensed IP is real, as it is on non-licensed models. In-house AI expertise and stronger copyright compliance will require additional investment to ensure slippery usage is minimised.
 

The UK broadcasting sector is undecided on how much to engage with a technology that could simultaneously threaten industry jobs, intellectual property, and competitive advantages. Some do not see themselves as in a position to take risks with AI, but the sector must consider the longer-term risks to inaction.

There is clear value to be unlocked along the production pipeline with AI, and unrealised opportunities for content owners to apply AI to their libraries and enhance discovery.

None in the industry can ignore how AI changes the wider competitive landscape: new AI services will provide audiences with alternative products, and disrupt distribution.

Big tech, even the US economy at large, is betting the house on AI. Some air might come out of the bubble, but AI investments’ trajectory will stay the course over the next 24 months.

UK national media and content creators face an acute challenge as they exploit global platforms’ ‘export’ opportunities, with AI’s ‘glocalisation’ potential a key new trend for future online video.

AI platforms could create an even tougher online media environment over the next few years. OpenAI’s spending plans are predicated on resetting how people shop, search and access entertainment.

Enormous AI capacity unlocked by 2026, combined with investor pressure for returns, is stimulating a rapid escalation in AI products that could spawn an AI ‘super app’ ecosystem that supplants the world of search and links

There is no turning back: Google is transforming search and YouTube while OpenAI and Perplexity launch AI browsers to capture user attention. OpenAI’s ChatGPT agent moves it further from Microsoft, who is yet to finalise their long-term relationship

Meta may pivot to a closed AI model without an ‘anchor tenant’—feeding Mark Zuckerberg’s ambition to revolutionise advertising. Meta is positioning new AI supercharged hardware in the consumer space designed to eclipse the smartphone