Trends steady, mixed outlook: UK mobile in Q4 2019
The UK mobile market was steady this quarter at around -2% ahead of out-of-contract notifications hitting from February.
The mobile sector is playing an important role in tackling COVID-19 and is likely to be relatively resilient in the short term with a broadly-neutral financial impact. Longer term it will be exposed to the fortunes of the economy.
Elsewhere, there have been green shoots of positivity in the outlook: some good regulatory news; a degree of price inflation; Carphone Warehouse’s retreat is a positive for the operators, and some financial drags will drop out as the year progresses.
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Weathering the storm: UK mobile market Q3 2019
29 November 2019The UK mobile market suffered its worst performance in six years this quarter as competition heated up and regulation continued to bite
Vodafone’s unlimited tariffs have proven popular, reaching 5% of its contract base in one quarter, helping to drive its outperformance
Some reprieve is in prospect next quarter, before the impact of out-of-contract notifications and automatic discounts from February, although there is the possibility of pre-emptive moves bringing some of the effects forward
O2: Steady ship in choppy waters
2 March 2020O2’s performance in the quarter to December 2019 is likely broadly in line with that of the previous couple of quarters, save for the impact of the annualisation of the launch of Custom Plans.
Sustaining service revenue and OIBDA growth at -2% in these challenging times is a good performance particularly as the shift to direct distribution continues to drag on service revenue trends.
The industry outlook remains very challenging particularly from heightened competition from Vodafone and H3G. O2 looks set to fare better than most on the issue of out-of-contract notifications but the likely loss of 36-month contracts by year end will be a blow. Customer focus and innovation will remain key to their success.
Vodafone plods on
12 February 2020Vodafone’s revenue performance remains decidedly lacklustre. Italy and Spain are struggling to bounce back, Germany is still languishing, and the UK’s 0.6% service revenue growth is the highlight of the quarter.
Liberty Global’s assets are disappointing both in terms of opening financials (revenues and EBITDA 8% and 12% lower than expected respectively) and outlook (now growing at half the rate at the time of deal announcement and guidance for Germany as a whole to be ‘flattish’).
Vodafone’s guidance for a pickup in revenue growth to more than 1% in Q4 is encouraging but these are very tentative steps forward in challenging times.
BT: Searching for the nadir
5 February 2020BT had a weak December quarter, with revenue falling 3% and EBITDA 4%, despite a recovery at Openreach, mainly driven by tough competition and regulatory hits, with operating metrics solid but not noticeably improving.
These hits look set to continue, so the company’s hopes of a return to EBITDA growth in 2020/21 probably hinge on brand and service improvements actually becoming visible in operating performance.
A successful full fibre roll-out would be a boon for BT in the longer term, and regulatory developments are headed in the right direction, if not quite there yet. However, its affordability without a dividend cut remains questionable in the current challenging environment.
Weathering the storm: UK mobile market Q3 2019
29 November 2019The UK mobile market suffered its worst performance in six years this quarter as competition heated up and regulation continued to bite
Vodafone’s unlimited tariffs have proven popular, reaching 5% of its contract base in one quarter, helping to drive its outperformance
Some reprieve is in prospect next quarter, before the impact of out-of-contract notifications and automatic discounts from February, although there is the possibility of pre-emptive moves bringing some of the effects forward
O2: Steady ship in choppy waters
2 March 2020O2’s performance in the quarter to December 2019 is likely broadly in line with that of the previous couple of quarters, save for the impact of the annualisation of the launch of Custom Plans.
Sustaining service revenue and OIBDA growth at -2% in these challenging times is a good performance particularly as the shift to direct distribution continues to drag on service revenue trends.
The industry outlook remains very challenging particularly from heightened competition from Vodafone and H3G. O2 looks set to fare better than most on the issue of out-of-contract notifications but the likely loss of 36-month contracts by year end will be a blow. Customer focus and innovation will remain key to their success.
Vodafone plods on
12 February 2020Vodafone’s revenue performance remains decidedly lacklustre. Italy and Spain are struggling to bounce back, Germany is still languishing, and the UK’s 0.6% service revenue growth is the highlight of the quarter.
Liberty Global’s assets are disappointing both in terms of opening financials (revenues and EBITDA 8% and 12% lower than expected respectively) and outlook (now growing at half the rate at the time of deal announcement and guidance for Germany as a whole to be ‘flattish’).
Vodafone’s guidance for a pickup in revenue growth to more than 1% in Q4 is encouraging but these are very tentative steps forward in challenging times.
BT: Searching for the nadir
5 February 2020BT had a weak December quarter, with revenue falling 3% and EBITDA 4%, despite a recovery at Openreach, mainly driven by tough competition and regulatory hits, with operating metrics solid but not noticeably improving.
These hits look set to continue, so the company’s hopes of a return to EBITDA growth in 2020/21 probably hinge on brand and service improvements actually becoming visible in operating performance.
A successful full fibre roll-out would be a boon for BT in the longer term, and regulatory developments are headed in the right direction, if not quite there yet. However, its affordability without a dividend cut remains questionable in the current challenging environment.