UK advertising expenditure forecast 2013-2015

14 October 2013

The advertising market appears more confident than at any time since the downturn of 2008/9 and we expect positive economic conditions to last until the next general election due in 2015

This encouraging outlook for the UK economy underpins our advertising expenditure forecast of CAGR 4.2% for 2013-2015

Internet advertising will increasingly dominate while television (CAGR 2%) and other media will see modest growth with the exception of print, still in sharp decline though less severely than feared a few months ago

Recent reports

UK print news regime: DCMS plans for online

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The proposal from DCMS to expand the pre-digital “public interest” regime that requires clearance for changes in the equity stakes in print newspapers to online news publishers lacks a firm rationale in 2024.

A plethora of online sources dilute the influence of news brands and their proprietors over British people’s political views, in particular the platforms (X, YouTube, TikTok and Facebook) hosting self-publishing influencers, politicians and political advertising.

The UK's expanded future regime, if enacted, will further chill the appetite of investors for stakes in commercial media, reduce their value and ability to raise capital, and stifle beneficial consolidation.

Access report

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This is the right outcome in our view, with the alternative of a slow, painful retreat by H3G much less desirable for the industry. BT/EE will face the greatest challenges in adapting to the new market structure, with upward pressure on capex spend for all network operators.

Access report

TV advertising's evolution: The broadcasters' perspective

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They would welcome the opportunity to work with advertisers to explain the complexity involved in delivering linear and digital campaigns.

Broadcasters believe that although TV advertising is transitioning to digital, legacy share deals and reliance on pricing relative to ITV1’s station average price (SAP) continue to hold the market back. Potential amendments to CRR may allow for a smoother digital transition, benefitting the entire ecosystem.

Access report