Virgin Media O2: Hitting the nadir?

Service revenue growth improved to -0.6%, aided by price-increase mechanics, although this will reverse next quarter.

FinTech MVNO launches have been somewhat tentative thus far, and mobile speed-tiering looks set to become the norm.

O2 has stepped up its price aggressiveness in both SIM-only and with-handset unlimited tariffs and is now the price-leading operator brand in this popular segment.

Broadband market revenue for the ‘big 4’ remains in decline as recovering subscriber trends are countered by worsening ARPU.

While abating altnet pressure should eventually lead to recovery, in the short term we expect revenue growth to worsen as the seasonal effect of annual price rises bites in the June quarter.

The longer-term outlook for the altnet sector is increasingly in regulators’ hands as the CMA decides on nexfibre/Netomnia and Ofcom decides on Openreach’s new special offer discounts

VMO2’s broadband and mobile segments both worsened in Q1 to decline at 3–4%, with altnets hitting the former and an over-publicised price rise change hitting the latter.

Subscriber trends however improved on both, with the broadband base notably reaching near stability as altnet pressure gradually recedes.

2026 will still be a tough year for the company, with service revenue/EBITDA guidance of a 3–5% decline for both looking realistic, but momentum thereafter is likely to be much improved