Vodafone: Tracking the narrative
Q2 results were something of a mixed bag. Headline growth was solid thanks to 1&1 onboarding, and whilst underlying trends in Germany for both revenue and EBITDA were still firmly negative, the former stabilised and the latter improved.
Tightening of EBITDA guidance in Europe is welcome, implying a flat headline performance and an underlying EBITDA decline of no more than 4%, with the potential for better, we believe.
VodafoneThree synergies and cloud reselling should take over the growth mantle when the 1&1 boost fades, facilitating some limited capacity for dividend growth.
Related reports
VodafoneThree launch: Astute, tentative steps
12 June 2025VodafoneThree's launch incorporates a number of swift and astute commercial decisions, which is particularly welcome given the challenging balancing act that the company needs to perform
The network upside will be felt quite quickly for Three customers primarily, with protection for Vodafone customers built in. Longer-term, the Government policy shift towards better coverage may require investment beyond the committed £11bn plan
We view some moves as helpful to prospects in the broadband market, others less so, and continue to have question marks about the attractiveness of this segment for VodafoneThree
Vodafone: Guten Tag, turnaround
1 August 2025Vodafone’s financials have begun what should be a steady improvement as this year progresses, leaving behind the TV regulatory hit and benefiting from the onboarding of 1&1.
Looking beyond one-offs, the core operational metrics are mixed but skewed to the positive. Vodafone has some tricky balancing to enact to deliver a return to sustainable growth.
EBITDA growth was solid in this quarter and is likely to remain so in the medium term, thanks in particular to VodafoneThree. More evidence of fundamental commercial delivery would strengthen hope of an enduring positive trajectory.
Better momentum, and in prospect: UK mobile market in Q2 2025
1 September 2025Service revenues were flat this quarter, pointing to strong underlying performance in spite of the drag from changing in-contract price increases and subscriber decline.
Traffic growth has picked up to 15% over the past couple of quarters, suggesting that at least some of the recent sharp slowdown was somewhat one-off in nature.
The outlook for revenue growth is positive, particularly thanks to BT/EE leading the way on ramping in-contract price increases, but there are also inherent risks in such moves.
Telecoms transformed: Vodafone3 merger impact
26 February 2025With the formation of Vodafone3, we envisage continued intense competition at the low end of the mobile market, a ramping up of pressure at the top end over time, and some opportunities in the short term.
New information on spectrum trading confirms the view that BT/EE will be most capacity constrained, but with various strategic options available to it.
Expected EBITDA growth of 9% p.a. at Vodafone3 would allow Vodafone Group to almost double its excess FCF. Budgeting for buying CK Hutchison’s stake, however, may curtail Vodafone’s spending over the coming years.
VodafoneThree launch: Astute, tentative steps
12 June 2025VodafoneThree's launch incorporates a number of swift and astute commercial decisions, which is particularly welcome given the challenging balancing act that the company needs to perform
The network upside will be felt quite quickly for Three customers primarily, with protection for Vodafone customers built in. Longer-term, the Government policy shift towards better coverage may require investment beyond the committed £11bn plan
We view some moves as helpful to prospects in the broadband market, others less so, and continue to have question marks about the attractiveness of this segment for VodafoneThreeVodafone: Guten Tag, turnaround
1 August 2025Vodafone’s financials have begun what should be a steady improvement as this year progresses, leaving behind the TV regulatory hit and benefiting from the onboarding of 1&1.
Looking beyond one-offs, the core operational metrics are mixed but skewed to the positive. Vodafone has some tricky balancing to enact to deliver a return to sustainable growth.
EBITDA growth was solid in this quarter and is likely to remain so in the medium term, thanks in particular to VodafoneThree. More evidence of fundamental commercial delivery would strengthen hope of an enduring positive trajectory.
Better momentum, and in prospect: UK mobile market in Q2 2025
1 September 2025Service revenues were flat this quarter, pointing to strong underlying performance in spite of the drag from changing in-contract price increases and subscriber decline.
Traffic growth has picked up to 15% over the past couple of quarters, suggesting that at least some of the recent sharp slowdown was somewhat one-off in nature.
The outlook for revenue growth is positive, particularly thanks to BT/EE leading the way on ramping in-contract price increases, but there are also inherent risks in such moves.
Telecoms transformed: Vodafone3 merger impact
26 February 2025With the formation of Vodafone3, we envisage continued intense competition at the low end of the mobile market, a ramping up of pressure at the top end over time, and some opportunities in the short term.
New information on spectrum trading confirms the view that BT/EE will be most capacity constrained, but with various strategic options available to it.
Expected EBITDA growth of 9% p.a. at Vodafone3 would allow Vodafone Group to almost double its excess FCF. Budgeting for buying CK Hutchison’s stake, however, may curtail Vodafone’s spending over the coming years.