This report on the French broadband market examines growth trends in 2009 and forecasts to 2012, updates our previous assessments of the commercial significance of IPTV in the triple play (a bundle of broadband, telephony and TV), and details the state of fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) deployment

Shrugging off the recession (milder and shorter than in the UK), the French broadband market is set to reach 19.6 million connections by the end of 2009, up 1.9 million on 2008 – only 12% less than the level of net adds of 2008. With 2009 better than we expected, we now anticipate a sharper slowdown in net adds in 2010, with 1.4 million net adds projected. We still expect the total to reach 22.8 million connections by 2012 (70% household penetration)

Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth declined again in the September quarter to -4.6%, but on an underlying basis it improved, and volume growth also improved, suggesting that improving economic fundamentals are starting to feed through

Margins again fell, with the net benefit of the cost reduction program a long way from compensating for revenue declines, but overhead costs are at least dropping in absolute terms

We are optimistic that revenue growth can continue recovering in Europe, implying a still-depressed 2009/10 but a much better 2010/11, with positive revenue growth in 2010/11 a real possibility, and that the company could stabilise margins if it sticks to cost reduction plans, and resists the temptation to ‘reinvest’ in ‘strategic’ initiatives

The international business (CWI) has been hit by a sharp downturn in tourism, but performance at the UK-based business (Worldwide) remains on course, despite declining revenue

The initial announcement of an intention to demerge Worldwide from CWI will be followed by more details by the end of November

With little prospect of growth at International in the second half, and a successful turnaround phase at Worldwide beginning to draw to a natural conclusion, the demerger may not have the impact some had hoped

Iliad is the only candidate in the rerun of the French 4th 3G Licence tender and we believe its bid will be successful

Free Mobile could launch by the autumn of 2011 under a ‘low cost’ model

We remain doubtful on the venture’s economic prospects – Iliad appears to underestimate the network and subscriber acquisition costs required to build a mobile operator of profitable scale

VMed’s Q3 results were strong, with the impact of the May price increases feeding through almost directly into growth in revenue and cash flow. Cable volume performance was solid, given difficult market conditions and the focus on higher value customers

VMed’s plans for HD are becoming increasingly important. In this regard, the outcome of Ofcom’s pay-TV investigation could prove crucial

The cost reduction programme is delivering ahead of expectations, and we remain optimistic that revenue growth will continue, in combination with reductions in operating costs, to generate further significant growth in cash flow

Latest fiscal Q1 2010 results show continuation of the strong subscriber and revenue growth trends, but as Sky forges ahead of its rival pay-TV operators so attention is turning to competition issues

It is still unclear whether Ofcom will succeed in introducing a wholesale ‘must offer’ remedy with regulated pricing for Sky’s premium subscription films and sports channels; a proposal that Sky vehemently contests but, if put into place during 2010, this could have a significant influence over the longer term structure of the UK pay-TV market

Results for the telecoms business continued to improve, albeit on a more modest scale than in Q4 2009, with the cost base beginning to show signs of greater stability

Just-launched Sky Songs offers a ‘new’ online music model, combining on- demand streaming with credit towards DRM-free downloads, for a single monthly payment

Sky Songs combines the best features of Spotify and iTunes, with lower average per track prices for in-bundle downloads, which will appeal to the music purchaser, and drive industry revenues provided regular use is made of the service

Sky Songs is backed by the power of Sky’s brand, serving the UK’s most entertainment-conscious clientele, with initial promotions targeting Sky’s 2.2 million broadband customers

Channel 4 has confirmed it will distribute catch-up and archive TV shows via YouTube on a non-exclusive basis starting in November, with the broadcaster responsible for selling advertising around its content

The partnership looks to be a win-win: Channel 4 stands to get a huge lift in its online audience while retaining control over sales, while Google achieves a breakthrough deal with a major broadcaster with the hope of more to come

We expect a rash of similar deals as rights holders, broadcasters and video service providers jostle for position in the nascent internet TV market, but few will benefit from the special synergies offered by Channel 4-YouTube

Recent weeks have seen a marked improvement in the short-term outlook for TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenues), with total decline for 2009 reckoned to be in the order of -12.5% after a fourth quarter in which year-on-year decline is now expected to be in the order of -6%

The economic outlook for 2010 remains very uncertain due to the drastic cuts needed in the government’s spending to bring the deficit under control, which could lead to a double dip recession, and the persistence of downward pressures on airtime costs due to structural changes to the TV medium

We have accordingly revised our central case forecast year on year decline in TV NAR from -8% up to -4% in 2010, but it may not be until the London Olympics year of 2012 that we again witness positive growth

Over the four years to 2008, fixed telephony market revenue has fallen by about 17% (£1.9 billion). But the picture is complex

The total number of fixed access lines has fallen by only 4% since 2004, but losses have been predominantly of business lines, due to a combination of inter-related factors involving a shift from ISDN2 to broadband, fixed call substitution and increased home working

We estimate that roughly half of the decline in total market revenue since 2004 has been due to substitution of dial-up internet access by broadband, the rest being accounted for by the substitution of regular call minutes by email and other forms of text communication, as well as by mobile, and price cuts