Q3 2013 results show a sound financial performance and strong growth in home communications, offset by low DTH net additions under a testing economic climate With a heavy emphasis on its own product initiatives in the broader connected screen and on demand space, the results release also shows Sky to be preparing for increasing competition from BT Vision and others in the IPTV space Although the rising competition promises extra programme and marketing costs and constraints on future product price increases, we expect limited impact on subscriber numbers, but also significant opportunities for incremental revenues

The completion of digital switchover has left an equilibrium between the digital satellite, cable and terrestrial platforms that is not expected to alter significantly by 2020

The main anticipated change over the forecast period is pay-TV subscription take-up where the 50/50 split between pay and free TV households is expected to rise steadily to 60/40, or even 67/33 if we include more individually-, as opposed to household-, based OTT online services such as Netflix, LoveFilm or Sky’s NOW TV

Most of the pay-TV subscription growth will occur at the lower end of the price range among BT Vision and TalkTalk customers, where the popularity and success of YouView will be critical in driving subscriber growth as TiVo has been and will be to Virgin Media holding its ground

Virgin Media’s consumer business had a very strong quarter in revenue growth terms, but a weaker one in subscriber terms, both driven by the annual price increase occurring during the quarter

On the wholesale side, the company signed up both Sky and two mobile operators for backhaul services, likely at BT Wholesale’s expense

Net net Virgin Media is well on course, with the completion of the acquisition by Liberty Global expected by the end of Q2 unlikely to derail this

UK mobile revenue growth was steady in Q4 at -3.9%, only a fractional drop from -3.8% in the previous quarter, with underlying growth unchanged, and contract subscriber growth and ARPU trends also unwavering, though the market solidity masked more dramatic developments in service offerings with the launch of the new EE umbrella brand and its 4G service

With the 4G spectrum auction now concluded, we can expect Vodafone and O2 to launch 4G services in the summer and H3G in the autumn; EE is looking to stay one step ahead with its recently announced speed doubling, and the intensity of marketing around 4G may even help its own service

While 4G will provide the talking points, actual financial results in 2013 will depend more on 3G base level pricing remaining firm; the signs so far are positive, with O2 having nudged up its core pricing, and mid-contract price increases scheduled by O2 and EE

Both subscriber and revenue growth in the UK home communications market perked up in Q4, with an easing of weather related supply-side constraints helping the former and firm pricing helping that latter. We expect both trends to continue into 2013

BT’s high speed broadband net adds accelerated in the quarter, as did that of the other DSL operators, albeit from a much lower base. High speed broadband is already a mass market phenomenon within the BT and Virgin Media subscriber bases, with it only a matter of time before this spreads further

Virgin Media had a record quarter, as it continues to benefit from being able to offer high broadband speeds at very competitive prices, with its planned acquisition by Liberty Global unlikely to change its strategy or performance going forward

BT Group’s acquisition of ESPN’s television business in the UK and Ireland marks an important step in cementing BT Sport’s position as the number two premium sports provider from the moment of launch.

The acquisition also raises the stakes, leaving BT with the strategic challenge of what distribution to opt for on the satellite and cable platforms to mitigate the high costs of BT Sport, but without overly sacrificing its USP for strengthening customer retention and building demand for high speed broadband on its own platform.

Crucial to BT’s success with BT Sport, yet obscured by the intense focus on the impending sports contest between BT and Sky, is how BT exploits YouView and multicast, all part of the bigger picture.

In 2006, the EU Commission forced the Premier League to sell TV rights to at least two separate broadcasters. The explicit purpose was to encourage the return of some matches to free-to-air channels and to stimulate competition, driving down prices and encouraging more people to watch football on TV The regulatory intervention has had none of the intended effects. Instead, insisting on multiple buyers has inflated the price of watching football and dragged many over-adventurous companies into bidding against pay-TV incumbents The only beneficiaries of the EU’s actions have been the players, whose salaries continue to rise exponentially, capturing all the extra money that broadcasters have paid

Virgin Media had a very strong Q4, with subscriber net adds improving across all main products, ARPU solid, and margins improving to record levels, with revenue growth set to accelerate in the coming quarters

This was overshadowed by the announcement that Liberty Global is planning to acquire Virgin Media to form the world’s largest cable TV subscriber base

The impact of this acquisition on the rest of the UK market would be minor, as Liberty Global is likely to follow the current Virgin Media approach on content, network and pricing

Tough economic conditions may have blunted DTH growth in the traditionally strong Christmas quarter, yet the Q2 2013 results show the underlying business to be in good health: highlights including strong multi-product and ARPU growth and impressive cost efficiencies

As a result, Sky has managed to deliver a sharp increase in operating profits, whilst simultaneously building its content strengths and retaining its technology focus on product improvements and innovation

The product diversification promises to benefit Sky less in terms of direct new revenue streams than in building customer loyalty and stickiness, important too for maintaining ARPU growth

Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 15 January 2013. The event featured talks by 14 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. This report provides edited transcripts of the talks given by nine of those speakers: Sir Martin Sorrell, CEO, WPP Tim Davie, Acting Director General, BBC Dan Cobley, Managing Director, Google UK & Ireland Michael Tobin, CEO, Telecity Group Liv Garfield, CEO, Openreach Dido Harding, CEO, TalkTalk Group Victor Zhang, CEO, Huawei UK & Ireland Cindy Rose, Executive Director of Digital Entertainment, Virgin Media Q&A: Dido Harding, Victor Zhang and Cindy Rose Ed Richards, CEO, Ofcom