On Monday 15th December, Virgin Media (VMed) announced the launch of its 50 Mbit/s ‘XXL’ broadband service, implemented over the existing cable network using the DOCSIS3 standard. This note looks at the details of the offer and the implications for VMed, other ISPs and the residential telecoms market as a whole
UK broadband net additions in Q3 2008 fell sequentially, the first time this has happened in a third quarter. Q3 net adds almost halved year-on-year to 320,000
Virgin Media’s Q3 results represent a significant step in the recovery of the business, with ARPU and consumer cable revenue stable for the first time in 18 months. Group OCF growth was hit by one-off opex reductions in the prior quarter but continues to grow on an underlying basis
H3G Group’s H1 2008 results showed static revenue and EBITDA slipping back into negative territory, neither of which bode well for the company’s target of being EBIT positive next year
VMed’s Q2 results represent a further step in the recovery of the business, with fixed line churn continuing to fall and operating cash flow (OCF) continuing to grow, helped by a dramatic improvement in OCF at Virgin Mobile
BT’s announcement of a project to extend fibre beyond the exchange for some existing homes as well as newly built ones is good PR, a useful regulatory gambit, and offers the prospect of regaining some initiative from unbundlers and Virgin Media at the wholesale and retail levels respectively
VMed’s Q1 results represent a further step in the recovery of the core cable business, with markedly lower churn and strong growth in operating cash flow (OCF)
H3G Group’s growth continued to slow in H2 2007, and it is now growing at just 6%, versus 10% 6 months ago, with falling ARPU combining with static subscriber net additions
Growth in ARPU is reinforcing the impact of improving cable subscriber growth, but revenue remains in decline, year-on-year
This note discusses the likely obstacles to a successful launch of H3G UK, the most aggressive 3G new entrant in Europe. Our main points:
What does this mean for the media industry? Does the increasing power of media buyers mean further downward pressure on rate cards? We suspect that many of the effects have already been felt, particularly in the European and US TV businesses. In fact, we see a different issue emerging: the explosion in advertising inventory in the last few years, which has resulted in a worldwide glut. This has coincided with what we think may be a permanent reduction in the absolute number of advertisers. As a result, media buyers will continue to obtain better terms, whether in buying as part of a large group or not, but media price deflation may be a feature of the industry for many years to come.