TTG’s full year results were, in the most important respects, solid, despite customer service issues and high churn caused by the migration of former Tiscali customers onto a single set of platforms
We remain cautious about the speed with which churn can be reduced, but there is little sign of the problem spreading beyond the former Tiscali base
Operating leverage and cost reduction have been impressive and give us confidence that new financial guidance will be met, although other sources of growth remain elusive
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In the March 2011 quarter Apple’s revenue was up 83% year-on-year and net income up 95%. iPhone sales are up 113% and the iPad has sold 19.5m units in the last 12 months. Even the ‘legacy’ Mac business grew 32%, and Apple now has over $65bn cash in the bank. Not bad for a niche business
With single digit penetration in its core growth businesses, Apple has the opportunity to continue growing fast for some time to come
The threat from Google’s Android is real but limited: we expect Android to take a large part of the mid range phone market but that Apple will retain and extend its competitive advantage for tablets and high end phones
Facebook's audience and consumption growth is now generating substantial and rising display advertising revenue, with consensus estimates of $2 billion in 2010, up 160% YoY, and it will overtake Google on this count this year
The social network's growing position as the centre of the internet experience is enabling it to become a platform for other services, such as e-commerce, making it an increasing strategic threat to Google, as well as other players in the digital media
More importantly, like Google before it, Facebook’s scale and function has the power to disrupt the digital e-commerce and marketing models built over the past decade
In Q1, Google’s UK gross revenue increased 13% YoY to £602 million (net of hedging gains), down from the 18% growth in the last quarter and in Q1 2010
Slowing growth appears to be due to the weak state of the UK economy, with consumers and advertisers alike holding back on online spending compared to previous years
We have downgraded our 2011 UK growth forecasts for Google and internet advertising spend to 12% and 9% YOY respectively; while search remains the main market driver, online display is increasingly the key battleground
Fujitsu UK’s announcement of plans to provide wholesale fibre-to-the-premise (FTTP) to five million premises potentially poses a significant threat to BT
However, deployment is contingent on the project attracting at least 60% of the available state funding and significant improvement by Openreach of its terms for Physical Infrastructure Access (PIA)
In addition, ISPs using Fujitsu’s network may find it difficult to attract retail market share from BT based on a high speed broadband proposition. However, should Fujitsu deploy at scale, the project could prove positive for Virgin Media
Some of Ofcom’s proposed wholesale charge controls for Openreach fixed access services sound stringent
However, we estimate that the overall financial impact on BT and other players is likely to be very small
We do not expect the proposals to result in changes to many retail prices, but they should tilt the playing field slightly in favour of BT Retail’s competitors, particularly smaller providers of broadband and business services
UK internet ad spend rose 13% YoY in 2010 to £4.1 billion; stripping out newly included formats such as mobile and Google hedging gains indicates actual growth was 15%
Growth in display, increasingly powered by Facebook and Google, continued to outpace that of search, with early signs that some brand advertising is shifting online
We have revised our growth forecast for 2011 to 10%, taking spend including mobile to £4,400 million, pushing the internet’s share of total advertising to 27%
European regulators are struggling to find the right balance between promoting the competitive impact of local loop unbundling (LLU) and encouraging investment in next generation access networks by incumbents and others
In continental Europe, regulators have tended to focus on the provision by incumbents to competing providers of access to physical infrastructure. This affords competing providers a high degree of product differentiation, but tends to be relatively uneconomic, to the detriment of unbundlers in markets where the cable operator is strong
In the UK, the regulator has tended to focus on the provision by BT Openreach of bitstream access at a price set by the market
European mobile revenue growth improved very slightly in Q4 2010, up by 0.1ppt in reported and 0.2ppts in underlying terms, but remained negative
While the improvement is welcome, growth remains very subdued compared to pre-recession levels, especially in Italy and Spain, which continue to lag the growth of the UK, Germany and France
The outlook for mobile revenue growth is bleak, with severe MTR cuts in Germany and the UK likely to drive growth down again over the next six months
In this short presentation we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to December 2010, based on the published results of the major service providers. We include our own estimates where reported data is incomplete. This quarter’s edition includes a look at Ofcom’s recent research into broadband speeds and its response to the Advertising Standards Authority’s review of broadband advertising.