Another record quarter of subscriber growth testifies again to the strengths of Sky’s marketing strategy and its successful entry into the telecommunications arena. The target of 10 million subscribers by the end of 2010 looks increasingly likely

TM is now looking at a sales target of £450 million instead of £600 million, though the revised target may still be too high, with the sale taking place at a time when regional newspaper fortunes are at a low ebb

Other results present a mixed picture: some improvements in costs, some progress online, but persisting doubts about TM’s ability to match its competitors over national newspaper sales and advertising revenues

Ofcom’s decision to hold a consultation on Sky’s pay DTT proposal will prevent its launch before Q1 2008 at the earliest and could be delayed to 2010 if Ofcom’s current investigation of the UK pay TV market ends, as seems increasingly likely, with a referral decision to the Competition Commission

Strong FY Q3 2007 results across all parts of Sky’s increasingly diversified portfolio testify to the success of its multiple product and service strategy as it makes the transition from a high price, high value to low price, high value business

 

 

 

UK broadband market growth fell to 3.2 million net additions in 2006 from 3.8 million in 2005. With 47% of UK households already on broadband, new entrant unbundlers (BSkyB and Carphone Warehouse) are racing against the clock of a maturing market to sign up customers

The spat between Virgin and Sky over cable carriage of Sky basic channels has generated much blogging, mostly supportive of Virgin, although neither party appears to be gaining from the ‘zero sum game’ dispute

Using a little understood provision of the merger rules, the government has asked Ofcom to take a look at the Sky stake in ITV, just in case the OFT did not come up with the right answer the first time round. As a result of the intervention, Ofcom will decide whether the share purchase reduced the number of separately managed broadcasters in the UK. Since this is almost exactly what the OFT is already doing, it is impossible to see how Ofcom could reach a different conclusion to the OFT. In this sense, the intervention has little point

Hostilities between Sky and Virgin have intensified during the course of cable’s re-launch, Sky’s announcement of its pay-DTT plans, and bilateral negotiations over channel carriage fee payments on the satellite and cable platforms

Strong second quarter subscriber figures, including 432,000 gross additions, the highest in six years, attest to a strong and improving product offer. To reach the core target of 10 million subscribers by 2010 will, however, require poaching many cable customers

Three sources of downside risk for Trader Media include: a sluggish car market impacting on print and online ad volumes; the decline of print ad volumes as a result of the shift to online and resulting compression of Trader’s operating margins; Trader’s powerful competitors in the online ad market, especially eBay

Trader’s valuation could be 10 to 11 times 2006 profit of £120 million, although a minority stake makes it difficult for a private equity investor to get in, slash the expensive print-based cost structure, and get out quickly

Ofcom will announce at the end of June the new terms for ITV to operate the analogue portion of its broadcast licence for ITV1. According to Ofcom's own statements, it is obliged to estimate the full value of ITV’s operation of the analogue ITV1 service and then extract all this value – bar some profit and other small allowances – in the form of annual licence payments. To do so, Ofcom has announced a methodology based on what the winning broadcaster would bid in a hypothetical competitive tender. In order to estimate the licence payments, analysts must grapple with the highly complex tasks of inferring the model from Ofcom's description and establishing the inputs.

An eventual merger is possible but difficult, especially given Hutchison Whampoa’s inflated view of H3G Italia’s value, considering it worth about the same as Wind itself, which is double the size and actually makes a profit (unlike H3G Italia)

Nonetheless, this does create a possible exit should H3G Italia’s planned Q1 2006 IPO fail, with the consolidation likely to benefit all players in the Italian market. H3G UK does not enjoy such an option, and is struggling more on a stand-alone basis to boot