The UK’s ‘zombie’ economy—largely flat since March 2022—is due to the cost-of-living crisis weighing on households, with this exacerbated in 2023 by the rising cost of credit. Real private expenditure growth will be weakly positive in 2024 before strengthening in 2025 as headwinds recede

Our 2023 forecast of a nominal rise but real decline in display advertising was realised, with TV’s revenues falling while digital display rose. Advertiser spend online is justified by the channel’s size and growth, worth an estimated £406 billion in 2023

For 2024, much lower inflation and mildly positive real private expenditure growth points to 3-4% display advertising growth, with a stronger recovery anticipated in 2025

Mobile service revenue growth dipped to 5.6% this quarter as the impact of Q2’s price rises began to wane, and the prospective lower price rises look set to slow growth to 2% by the end of 2024.

Bargain-hunting in the sector continues with the MVNOs still taking the lion’s share of net adds, to the detriment of the MNOs.

EE is offering keenly priced convergence and family plans with its new platform—another challenge for the other MNOs who don’t share the same incentives.

BT continued to perform well financially in Q2, with revenue and EBITDA growth remaining robust, and full year cashflow guidance nudged up.

ARPU growth remained robust across fixed, mobile and Openreach, but subscriber growth was weaker, especially in mobile and Openreach, and this will become more of a concern if it persists.

Maintaining growth across retail divisions will be a challenge as the price rise effect wanes, especially in weak economic conditions, and while Openreach’s FTTP roll-out is going well, full success is still not assured.

With a difficult price rise adjustment now behind it, VMO2’s subscriber momentum is much improved, in part aided by accelerated network expansion.

Backbook pricing remains under pressure on the fixed network with revenues down 1.2% in spite of sizeable price rises and footprint expansion—upcoming OTS may exacerbate this issue.

VMO2 has thus far only countered the downside of the UK’s fibre revolution. A new approach to branding and expansion of its addressable market are upside opportunities—with the ultimate potential to even deliver improvements on its previous position.

Online retail is a prime arena for AI implementation, with a high degree of tech involvement and proximity to the point of sale

Generative AI’s near-term prospects are inflated by the hype cycle; instead, improvements to product discovery and logistics will be the next frontiers for growth and AI-driven efficiency

Retailers risk their reputations as they jostle for early mover advantage: larger players Amazon and Shopify through major investments, and SMEs with specialised data and licensing

News UK and the Mail propose to set up a joint venture, pooling most of the infrastructure and capacity of their printing operations

The proposed JV is subject to competition scrutiny, with two print sites—Thurrock and Dinnington (both DMG Media)—identified for potential closure                          

Opportunities for digital collaboration should be higher up publisher agendas more generally, as the opportunities and threats of the next digital phase evolve

The sale of each of the parent companies of The Telegraph and Spectator Groups is close to kick-off, with several buyers already expressing a firm interest. 

Newspaper mergers are likely to be subject to both a competition and public interest process, representing a hurdle for potential buyers.

Only a trade buyer would be tested for a potential substantial lessening of competition and for a potential reduction in media plurality, a higher bar than for non-trade buyers. 

A cooler consumer market sees Sky now facing the same pressures as its SVOD competitors, with a loss of pay-TV subscribers in the UK.

However, Sky is performing better in telecoms in both the UK and Italy. These markets are less susceptible to recession with Sky also benefitting from its position as more of a challenger than an incumbent.

Uncertainty continues to loom over both the sale of its German platform and the upcoming allocation of Serie A rights in Italy.

Women's football coverage increased in quality during the FIFA Women's World Cup, with greater presence in sports sections and main news sections, despite a mild decline in the overall quantity of women's sport coverage

Press advertising opportunities are beginning to be capitalised on by sponsors and brands, particularly in print, with online lagging. This will need to be addressed to harness ongoing online growth

Editorial continues to play a significant role in the promotion of women's sport. Coverage levels are inevitably skewed upward by success, but also by slower turnover online, doing women's sport a disservice and hampering growth

The sale of the Telegraph Media Group (TMG) gets a boost from its 2022 Trading Statement, including steadily rising profits, and visibility for 2023 subscriptions

TMG has built out its digital reader revenues, rapidly closing on one million subscriptions—setting the business on a more sustainable path

The sale of TMG and The Spectator will reach its highest valuation if appetite to own these assets sharpens and widens the range of buyers that will bid