Sky Q3 FY 2008 results confirm the strength of the core pay-TV business, where the marketing strategy is now focused on subscriber quality rather than pure numbers. Sky+ boxes continue to fly off the shelves, while weak HD and Sky Multiroom sales call for attention in fiscal 2009
The Digital Dividend resulting from analogue switch-off and digital switchover (DSO) is shaping up into Ofcom’s spectrum sale of the century. It comes at a time when the TV broadcasting industry is coming to see the progress from standard definition (SD) to high definition (HD) as fundamental a step change in broadcast picture quality as was many years ago the shift from black and white into colour. This report examines the Ofcom proposals, the financial costs to the commercial PSBs and the implications of Sky’s Picnic proposals for the successful achievement of Ofcom’s plan
Iliad will be challenged to meet its target of a steady EBITDA margin of 36% in 2008 despite further cuts in mobile termination charges due to the continued drift of the subscriber mix to higher cost (for Iliad) full telephony packages. Some benefit to cash flow could result from reduced charges for one-off LLU services to be mandated by regulator ARCEP
Broadband market growth continues to fall and was below 20% for the first time in Q4 2007. Household penetration hit 56%. BSkyB dominated net additions, increasing its market share to 7.8% after 18 months of operation
This report examines whether Sky has grounds to appeal the decision by the Competition Commission requiring Sky to partly divest its ITV stake. The deadline for Sky's decision on appeal is 25th February. Bearing in mind that the CC has a good track record on fighting appeals, this report identifies two potential grounds for appeal that could prove fruitful for Sky to appeal. If Sky does appeal, and we suspect it will, the uncertainty weighing on ITV's share price will continue for some time yet
Sky's Q2 results show continuing strong growth across all parts of its multi-product business, with bumper product sales, up by almost a third year-on-year
France is the first major European market where a large scale fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) deployment is under way. Numericable and France Télécom, as well as unbundlers Iliad and Neuf Cegetel, are launching triple play offers over fibre to households. Public authorities actively support the plans, to boost France's growth prospects. This report examines the commercial context for fibre deployment in France
Unity Media sold its 14.58% stake in German pay-TV operator Premiere to News Corporation at the start of 2008, prompting speculation of a full takeover by News Corporation later in the year
Sky's continued excellent performance has attracted favourable comment in the weeks since its half yearly results. But much of the commentary missed some critical points. The analysts did not question Sky's assertions that it was successfully targeting high value customers. Actually, the last half-year saw a fall in the numbers taking the top-priced package. Similarly, few commentators noticed that despite the favourable comments in the results announcement, interactive revenues actually fell last quarter. The steepest rate of decline was seen in betting, which a year ago was going to be application that formed the core of Sky's interactive ARPU. Similarly nobody seemed to have noticed that Sky's overall share of TV viewing declined in the quarter, despite the addition of two hundred thousand new subscribers.
According to the Financial Times (27/03/2002), the European Commission is planning ‘to clamp down on the cost of calling mobiles’ and issue ‘tough new rules’, which ‘would make it easier for national telecoms regulators to force mobile phone companies to reduce excessive call termination charges’. According to our research, this is an exaggerated assessment: the likeliest outcome would be a Commission recommendation on ‘best practice’ guidelines, rather than new rules. Our research also shows that the pressures from NRAs on MNOs to lower mobile termination charges are highly uneven in the top three markets: they are most acute in the UK (predictably, given the pro-consumer orientation of Oftel), less significant but nevertheless present in Italy, and non-existent in Germany. Thus, if the UK Competition Commission endorses Oftel’s proposed charge cap in its forthcoming ruling, we can expect the four leading UK MNOs to lose about £880 million in revenues for the 2002-2006 period, with the annual reduction in 2002-2003 estimated at about £265 million.