On 28 June, News Corporation split into two companies:
• 21st Century Fox will consist of the TV and entertainment assets: Cable Network Programming, Fox Filmed Entertainment, Television, Sky Italia, its 55% stake in Sky Deutschland and its 39% stake in BSkyB.
• New News Corp will consist of the publishing assets (Dow Jones, The Sun and Times/Sunday Times, the New York Post, News America Marketing Group, the Australian newspapers and Harper Collins), as well as Fox Sports Australia, the digital education business Amplify, a 61.6% stake in digital property business REA Group Limited and a 50% stake in Australian pay-TV operator Foxtel.

The split partly reflects industry trends. Over the last five years, a number of media conglomerates, including McGraw-Hill and Time Warner, have separated low growth, low multiple publishing assets from higher growth parts of the businesses in order to optimise valuations and management focus.

This report provides a breakdown of the divisions within the two new companies and analyses their growth prospects.

Q3 2013 results show a sound financial performance and strong growth in home communications, offset by low DTH net additions under a testing economic climate With a heavy emphasis on its own product initiatives in the broader connected screen and on demand space, the results release also shows Sky to be preparing for increasing competition from BT Vision and others in the IPTV space Although the rising competition promises extra programme and marketing costs and constraints on future product price increases, we expect limited impact on subscriber numbers, but also significant opportunities for incremental revenues

The completion of digital switchover has left an equilibrium between the digital satellite, cable and terrestrial platforms that is not expected to alter significantly by 2020

The main anticipated change over the forecast period is pay-TV subscription take-up where the 50/50 split between pay and free TV households is expected to rise steadily to 60/40, or even 67/33 if we include more individually-, as opposed to household-, based OTT online services such as Netflix, LoveFilm or Sky’s NOW TV

Most of the pay-TV subscription growth will occur at the lower end of the price range among BT Vision and TalkTalk customers, where the popularity and success of YouView will be critical in driving subscriber growth as TiVo has been and will be to Virgin Media holding its ground

BT Group’s acquisition of ESPN’s television business in the UK and Ireland marks an important step in cementing BT Sport’s position as the number two premium sports provider from the moment of launch.

The acquisition also raises the stakes, leaving BT with the strategic challenge of what distribution to opt for on the satellite and cable platforms to mitigate the high costs of BT Sport, but without overly sacrificing its USP for strengthening customer retention and building demand for high speed broadband on its own platform.

Crucial to BT’s success with BT Sport, yet obscured by the intense focus on the impending sports contest between BT and Sky, is how BT exploits YouView and multicast, all part of the bigger picture.

In 2006, the EU Commission forced the Premier League to sell TV rights to at least two separate broadcasters. The explicit purpose was to encourage the return of some matches to free-to-air channels and to stimulate competition, driving down prices and encouraging more people to watch football on TV The regulatory intervention has had none of the intended effects. Instead, insisting on multiple buyers has inflated the price of watching football and dragged many over-adventurous companies into bidding against pay-TV incumbents The only beneficiaries of the EU’s actions have been the players, whose salaries continue to rise exponentially, capturing all the extra money that broadcasters have paid

Tough economic conditions may have blunted DTH growth in the traditionally strong Christmas quarter, yet the Q2 2013 results show the underlying business to be in good health: highlights including strong multi-product and ARPU growth and impressive cost efficiencies

As a result, Sky has managed to deliver a sharp increase in operating profits, whilst simultaneously building its content strengths and retaining its technology focus on product improvements and innovation

The product diversification promises to benefit Sky less in terms of direct new revenue streams than in building customer loyalty and stickiness, important too for maintaining ARPU growth

The development of the Digital Britain infrastructure, introduction of tablets, increasing connectivity of TV sets and launch of on demand OTT services over the internet have greatly intensified interest in connected viewing and its impact on the traditional broadcast model No single source of audience measurement for viewing of long- and short- form video content across all screens yet exists, though current market data suggest that connected viewing occupies a c. 8.5% share of total viewing across all screens By 2020, we project the connected viewing share of total viewing across all screens will reach 20%, with tablets being the primary drivers of growth, in part incremental and in part substitutional to viewing to the TV set, where we expect the connected viewing share to remain under 5%

2012 has been a year of two halves, with TV NAR up by 2-3% in H1, plus the feel good factor of the Diamond Jubilee and London Olympics, but down by 1-1.5% across the full year as economic conditions have worsened in H2 2013 and 2014 promise to be especially taxing times with significant downside risks due to weakness in the economy, the squeeze on consumer disposable income and beginnings of real fiscal austerity On the upside, we expect negative structural pressures, caused by increases in CI delivery and online growth, to subside and conditions to improve from 2015

Q1 2013 was a solid quarter, notable for low seasonal churn, uplift in television gross additions and good growth in home communications, although the rate is slowing The low quarterly ARPU increase of £2 was the weak point in light of the September price increases in television, testifying to the toughness of the economic headwinds rather than to competition from OTT services like Netflix and Lovefilm With NOW TV in its teething stages, the main impact of connected TV on Sky will only start to emerge in the second half of next year; while the most immediate issue is the entry of BT into the sports content market and the concomitant risk of sports rights inflation

The linear TV broadcast industry has kept its oligopolistic structure remarkably intact over the last 50 years against a background of much technological innovation and re-regulation, but now faces a new wave of innovation that promises growth of non-linear at the expense of linear True disruption can only occur by solving the device challenge of developing on a mass scale new, compelling and innovative ways to access content, but so far non-linear has achieved a very small share of total viewing while linear viewing levels are as high as ever Although non-linear viewing may become substantial, it is unlikely to result in fundamental change in the distribution value in the industry