Zoopla and The Digital Property Group, DMGT’s property portfolio which includes Findaproperty, Primelocation and Globrix, announced a merger on 14 October 2011. Under the terms of the proposed merger, DMGT would receive a 55% interest in the merged entity

A merged Zoopla and DPG will compete more effectively with market leader Rightmove, in a property market scaled down by one-third in terms of the number of transactions

We think the merger will give advertisers a better choice and constrain Rightmove’s pricing power, which has seen hefty fee increases on members, most recently in 2010, in 2011 and most recently again in November 2011

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request

National newspaper circulation continued its inexorable decline in September, with daily circulation down 7% year-on-year, although we estimate retail sales value decline was marginal

Sunday popular and mid-market newspaper circulation fell 4% month-on-month, as News of the World buyers continue to drop out of the market; we estimate around a third of ex-readers have not migrated to another title

Publishers are responding to circulation decline in a variety of ways, from churning out bulks to maintain scale, to increasing cover prices, axing international editions and developing their subscriber base

In the context of his Inquiry, Lord Leveson invited Claire Enders, as “one of the UK’s foremost media business analysts”, to kick off the seminar series on the 6 October with a synoptic presentation on “Competitive pressures on the press”. The Inquiry is interested in understanding the market economics of the mainstream media, including the impact of technology

This presentation brings together our existing work on the newspaper and consumer magazines industry, with an emphasis on the former, highlighting the challenges to the print media of the internet

A video transcript of Claire’s presentation and the debate on the session’s subject of “Competitive pressures on the press and the pressures on journalism”, may be accessed on the site of the Leveson inquiry, at www.levesoninquiry.org.uk

Nearly a year after rolling out Google TV in the US, Google has confirmed plans to launch its ‘smart TV’ operating platform in Europe and the UK by early 2012

To date, Google TV in the US has been a disappointment, with little broadcaster support and, until recently, expensive devices, resulting in low adoption

The content issue is likely to dog Google TV, both here and in other European markets; access to key broadcaster TV and video programming will be a major challenge

Whilst UK GDP growth crawls along at a snail’s pace in 2011, (real) private consumption, its principal component, has been in sequential decline since Q4 2010, dragging consumer facing industries down

UK media are not equally affected. The internet continues to grow through search as well as display, but we expect TV NAR to be flat in 2011

Press advertising is worst affected by the downturn due to its exposure to retail advertising on top of the structural shift of classifieds to the internet

UK classified advertising in print and digital media fell -9% in 2010 to £2.76 billion, and we expect a further decline of -7% in 2011.

Our annual review and outlook concerns the classified advertising categories of recruitment, property, autos (used) and directories, across all media. We assess the continuing structural shift from print formats to less expensive digital media, in the context of prolonged recessionary pressures on local economies in the UK (bar London), which have reduced annual transaction volumes in 2010 by -28% in recruitment, -45% in property and just -16% in used cars, in relation to the peak in 2007.

A key development in recent quarters has been the rapid adoption of smartphones and tablets as emerging platforms for classified advertising by the industries serving them. Consumers are enjoying the additional benefits of on-the-move data (e.g. in the forecourts of auto dealers) and instantaneous updates (e.g. for property rentals), which advertisers are keen to exploit, providing additional revenue opportunities for classified media. B2B classified platforms also monetise integrated brand and listings solutions, plus marketplace tools. New models are evolving that will have implications for other media and in some cases, industry supply chains.

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request

ITV reported strong year-on-year growth in profits in H1 2011, enabling a substantial reduction of net debt and putting the company in a stronger position to invest in growth as it pursues its five year transformation plan

Important to longer term success, ITV Family share of viewing has held up, and ITV looks well placed to expand its market share of TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) over the next two years, albeit in an uncertain and challenging economic environment

Early signs of creative revival at ITV Studios are most encouraging, while online poses the toughest challenges, yet remains important because of the fundamental interactive synergies between online and broadcast television

Trinity Mirror, Northern & Shell and DMGT helped the market more or less offset the absence of the News of the World, though impressive volumes have come at a price

More generally, newspaper circulations have a temporary reprieve, as strong newsflow but also discounts and marketing techniques have been deployed to attract readers

What happens next at News International, and also competitor responses, could soon change market dynamics again