News Corp will split publishing out of its business by creating a company to include newspapers in the US, UK and Australia as well as book publisher HarperCollins News Corp revenue growth has for some time been driven by explosive growth in cable network programming revenues, with slower revenue growth in film, TV, satellite TV and publishing The structural decline of print-based businesses is the main reason cited for the split. However, the Dow Jones and WSJ, both serving a B2B market, will be at the heart of the new publishing company’s value
In this report we show the findings of our 2012 UK mobile user survey. The report is a wide ranging analysis of the mobile market based on our consumer research, focusing on the competitive landscape among the mobile operators and smartphone manufacturers, and the changing consumer behaviour that has and will continue to impact the market
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request.
Further sharp year-on-year declines in viewing share by the leading commercial PSB channels, ITV1 and Channel 4, in Q1 2012 run contrary to the general stabilisation of viewing trends as Digital Switchover nears completion
The Channel 4 decline is more easily explained by exceptional factors, while closer examination of NAR trends suggest that ITV Family NAR has performed less well in recent quarters than results releases suggest
Once past Digital Switchover, digital convergence trends appear less of a threat towards the future stability of ITV and Channel 4 family viewing trends than the competitive threat from Sky as it raises its investment in UK programme origination
Sky Deutschland has renewed its broadcast rights contract with the Bundesliga until 2017, removing the most important source of uncertainty for investors and consumers, albeit at the cost of a 77% jump in the fee from 2013/14
Combined with Sky’s new exclusive channels, high definition offer and on-demand services, the contract will sustain subscriber growth, but ARPU will only rise slowly
Although we forecast Sky to meet its EBITDA breakeven target in 2013, cash flow should stay negative until 2015 due to rising spend on receivers
H3G’s European operations slightly improved underlying service revenue growth, and EBIT margin improved from 0% to 3%, but the latter figure was flattered by a change in handset subsidy accounting; without this change, EBIT would likely have been negative
The UK and Italian performances further diverged, with UK growth accelerating in H2 to +13%, and Italy decelerating to -14%, despite a renewed (and expensive) push for contract subscribers in Italy
The UK business has positioned itself well for the smartphone revolution, with its all-you-can-eat data plans particularly popular, although the resulting traffic surge may cause service quality problems in the future
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request.
Mobile operators, services and handset makers are diverging – they all come to the MWC but have increasingly little to say to each other as their businesses move in very different directions
In the context of -5% European mobile revenue growth, the MNOs at the MWC were a sober bunch, focusing on industrial services, defensive moves around messaging, and a (not unreasonable) plea to regulators for some relief
As competition in Android intensifies between hundreds of black plastic rectangles, the picture for OEMs looks tough but Google’s failure to make Android work well for developers may also start to bite, leaving an opening for Nokia and Windows Phone
With the economy drifting sideways, we have set our centre case forecasts at 0-1% average annual growth in TV NAR and assigned a low probability to a repeat of the hyper-cyclical downturn of 2008/9
Comparative international data show a pervasive long term weakness in display advertising trends across the developed world, while emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and Central/Eastern Europe take an increasing share of global budgets
With digital switchover near completion, channel viewing shares across the main commercial groups should stabilise, but internet advertising, especially online video, will exert a negative structural downward pressure on TV NAR over the next three years at least