Italy's Serie A could award its 2021-24 broadcasting rights tomorrow to either Sky or DAZN (backed by TIM) for a fee significantly down on the previous cycle.

Either outcome looks good for Sky: increasing coverage at a lower fee, or pivoting to aggregation as DAZN will need to access Sky’s subscriber base.

DAZN and its ally TIM are also shifting strategy, but with weak rationale. The Italian auction reinforces our expectation of a drop in Premier League fees in the imminent British tender.

Despite linear TV viewing benefiting from recent lockdowns, across 2020 it still declined among younger audiences. Online video habits have solidified, most notably for adults in their 30s and 40s

As a result, traditional broadcasters are more vulnerable now than ever before. Long term, we forecast their audiences to fall further than previously expected—down to 61% of all video viewing in 2027 from 72% today—as streaming platforms make ever-deeper inroads

Given linear TV’s reliance on older cohorts, plus an ageing UK population, we predict that two-thirds of traditional broadcasters’ viewing in 2027 will come from over-55s, with less than 13% from under-35s

Thanks to lockdown momentum, Amazon Prime Video enjoyed a 48% YoY increase in UK reach to 9.5 million households in Q3 2020. Christmas time coverage of the Premier League seems to have played a part, informing Amazon’s approach elsewhere.

Upping its game, Amazon has acquired more expensive Champions League rights in Germany and Italy. It also bid in Monday’s failed French Ligue 1 auction.

In the impending Premier League tender Amazon may be ready to increase its outlay if needed to meet subscribers’ expectations, but without any real incentive to challenge Sky and BT’s dominance.

The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) this year was held virtually, with announcements revolving almost exclusively around the pandemic and addressing changing consumer needs. The evolving use of tech at home was a particular focus for brands as consumers are now demanding more of their homes than ever before.

Following a record 2020, ecommerce was a topic that garnered a lot of attention, with retailers emphasising the importance of a consumer centric 'digital first' strategy, accepting the fact that ecommerce is going to be bigger than it ever has been.

Amid increased tech use at home, moves to ban third-party cookies and impending regulatory changes to data collection in the US, the conversation around data and privacy was more prominent than ever before. First-party data is going to be more valuable, even if tracking restrictions limit what can be done with that data.

Netflix believes that it no longer needs to raise external financing for its day-to-day operations. This has come quicker than expected—a product of the pandemic, fuelled by an extra $4.8 billion in streaming revenue (+24% on 2019) and aided by the production shutdown and proportionally lower marketing spend

Baked into Netflix’s confidence for the future is the knowledge that the pandemic has allowed greater exploitation of price rises, given the residual lower churn

While Disney+’s content slate is impressive, Netflix has countered it with breadth alongside scale and a massive 2021 film schedule that given it is not geared for the box office, will be a more diverse offering than that of the major studios

By integrating Amazon's content, Sky tightens up its ecosystem. We now estimate that no more than 5% of Sky users have subscriptions to services that are not carried by Sky Q, excluding Now TV

The agreement may be a first step in closer co-operation, but Sky will be cautious to value the benefits and costs. Amazon's width of business makes it different from others it has made deals with

Sky is on its way to transform the relationship it has with content suppliers from a relatively simple wholesale model to something it now calls aggregation: this appears intrinsically more complex

Netflix’s usage and churn are “back to what they were a year ago”, while subscriber growth was down (+2.2 million globally) as the two levers—reduction in churn and the "pull-forward" effect of the pandemic—for its recent explosive growth softened

Although there will be some lag, content production is back to a near steady state. Since the shutdown eased Netflix has completed principal photography on 50+ productions and the company is optimistic that it will complete shooting on over 150 other productions by year end

The pandemic has handed Netflix residual benefits, including an acceleration of the changes in viewing behaviour and an improved position in terms of cash: it stated that its “need for external financing is diminishing [so] we don’t have plans to access the capital markets this year”

With a lack of live sport, the lockdown weighed on incumbent pay-TV platforms’ subscriptions. SVOD providers leveraged their cheap positioning—Netflix and Amazon Prime Video now rank above other subscription services in Europe, and Disney+ had a successful launch.

Incumbents—Sky, Canal+, Movistar+—all pursue a twin-track strategy. They are positioning themselves as gatekeepers thanks to service bundles, while redirecting resources away from sports towards original series.

European productions are increasingly garnering audiences outside of their home markets, regardless of the production language. Netflix is a major conduit for European exports, due to personalisation of the interface and high-quality dubbing.

Even with lockdown continuing and competition for time still almost non-existent, linear viewing is heading back towards 2019 levels after its big, early boost

The inevitable fatigue around COVID-19 news, along with the growing staleness of the TV schedule caused by content supply struggles, are behind the decline

Unmatched TV set use, made up predominantly of streaming and gaming, has held onto much of its growth, not affected by many of the challenges that linear schedules face. This trend will inform future viewing patterns

Netflix had an excellent first quarter in 2020 with the tail end encompassing lockdown and likely eliminating churn, as usage exploded

Looking forward, there are lessons to be learnt from Netflix's performance in the US market, which is maturing and stabilising: we model strategy around pricing, content spend and subscription-tier mix

However, differences in other markets remain stark—such as the varying propensities to absorb price rises, and the attachment to locally-produced content