Service revenue growth remained firmly negative at -1.0% in spite of inflation of +2.1%, as competition remains intense and pricing power weak.

Operators are guiding to a 2025 EBITDA performance that is broadly in-line with, or weaker than, their 2024 performance, with SFR choosing to abstain from guidance this year.

In-market consolidation cries are getting louder, with France, Italy and Germany the most obvious candidates.

2024 was the first year in history in which the network operators lost contract subscribers. MVNOs added 1.7m.

In-contract price increases are dominating revenue trends, with a somewhat flatlining outlook on an underlying basis but boosted by accounting technicalities.

We expect the Vodafone3 merger to close on 1 of May which has implications for buyout timing and will prompt higher capex, some early network upsides, and big strategic decisions for both Vodafone3 and BT/EE.

Podcast reach and share continue to grow, albeit slowly, aided by need-state differentiation and increasingly online, on-demand media habits.

The ad market remains small with the long tail of podcasts difficult to monetise, but an industry move into video—on both YouTube and Spotify—offers substantial reach and monetisation opportunities.

Publishers and broadcasters see podcasts as an essential brand extension enabling greater reach, whilst successful podcast networks have tapped into more relaxed, commercial formats.

ITV saw advertising revenue growth in 2024 (+2% to £1.8 billion), aided by the Euros. This balanced some of Studios’ 6% decline (to £2.0 billion), however, total external revenues were down 4% (£3.5 billion)

Despite the revenue drop, profits improved, with group adjusted EBITA increasing 11% to £542 million. This was aided by a unique set of circumstances which drove Studios’ profit to a record high with cross-company cost-cutting showing its benefit

ITV is making strides in its transition to digital but even though the revenue story is largely positive, the company continues to leak engagement and viewing share

Geopolitical clashes between the US and Europe were a barely concealed undercurrent at this year’s MWC, with European tech regulation at odds with US moves, and telcos pitching for regulatory favours on firmer ground than they have had for years.

Perhaps the largest impact is on the satellite industry, with Eutelsat OneWeb having been given a new lease of life as the EU champion versus a now disfavoured SpaceX/Starlink.

AI was of course the talk of the town, but largely in ways that are tangential at best to traditional telcos, with the necessary building blocks for telcos to play a big role (i.e. network APIs) still needing much work.

With the formation of Vodafone3, we envisage continued intense competition at the low end of the mobile market, a ramping up of pressure at the top end over time, and some opportunities in the short term.

New information on spectrum trading confirms the view that BT/EE will be most capacity constrained, but with various strategic options available to it.

Expected EBITDA growth of 9% p.a. at Vodafone3 would allow Vodafone Group to almost double its excess FCF. Budgeting for buying CK Hutchison’s stake, however, may curtail Vodafone’s spending over the coming years.

Telcos are increasingly developing APIs to share selected network data with third parties, with the goal of supporting useful end-user applications.

Capabilities are still nascent, but the potential is real. Telcos need to adopt a pragmatic approach that looks to match API capabilities to useful products, and build increasing scale over time.

Security is the largest near-term opportunity for API products, but AI is the key emerging area, with telcos potentially able to play an ambitious role in providing APIs to help manage the growth of autonomous AI agents.

Vodafone has signalled a tougher outlook in Germany primarily due to a worsening competitive backdrop for mobile.

Although Vodafone has reiterated its guidance for the full year, this now relies heavily on developing countries, with currency risk emerging for FY26.

Investors are likely to be sceptical of the company’s “ambition” to grow in Germany next year, with this seemingly predicated on an improving competitive environment. Nonetheless, the company can point to some early fruits of its turnaround endeavours there, and next year’s trends should be better than the current ones regardless.

Broadcaster reach and viewing fell in 2024, but the decline slowed as BVOD growth increasingly makes up for linear decline and the BBC’s viewing grew year-on-year. 

SVOD penetration and engagement returned to (slight) growth in 2024 and video-sharing platforms are increasing their share of TV set viewing.

Broadcasters still offer a wider array of programming than SVODs, but they are expanding their offering, as is YouTube.