The UK business (EAUS) is continuing to improve ahead of guidance as expected and its turnround can now be judged a success. Management has announced an aggressive plan to extract synergy from the recently acquired Thus
Just three players now account for most French broadband connections: Orange’s DSL market share is closing on 50%, Iliad’s rose to 25% from consolidation with Alice, while SFR’s dropped to 23.7%, with Neuf’s rebrand imminent. Cable remains a minimal presence on broadband
In our view the potential for synergies from an acquisition of Thus by C&W, though more limited than might be supposed, would still have a significant impact on the combined entity at the EBITDA level
Iliad is to recover the No. 2 spot on the French broadband market, behind France Télécom’s Orange, after acquiring Alice, ending Telecom Italia’s ill fated five-year French venture
The much anticipated iPhone 3G is due to launch in July; it will include 3G and GPS, but will otherwise be quite similar to the old model, and is still a little off-the-pace in feature terms
International performance continued to be weak apart from Macau, although well within EBITDA guidance. Turnaround in Jamaica remains a significant challenge
The recorded music market decline continued without pause in 2007, with global sales down an estimated 11% in value. Physical and internet piracy continue to drive the CD sales decline, along with substitution to downloads, and the bankruptcies of physical retailers in the US and UK. Meanwhile, Apple’s iPod+iTunes music ecosystem continues to be favoured by customers, driving the growth of the digital music market, as ringtones stabilise globally. These recorded music market trends are reducing music publishers’ associated royalty income, although offset by rising royalties from the use of music on broadcast media, film, advertising and the internet
Iliad will be challenged to meet its target of a steady EBITDA margin of 36% in 2008 despite further cuts in mobile termination charges due to the continued drift of the subscriber mix to higher cost (for Iliad) full telephony packages. Some benefit to cash flow could result from reduced charges for one-off LLU services to be mandated by regulator ARCEP
To encourage investors, TF1 announced continued diversification of group revenues from reliance on the flagship TF1 channel, and an increase in group Ebitda from 16% in 2007 to 20% in ‘4-5 years’. Accelerating audience share decline at the TF1 channel indicates that new programming is also urgently required to maintain TF1’s ‘premium’ for advertisers
Yell announced this week that full year sales growth (to March 2008) in its UK operations would be 2%, sharply down from the previously forecast 3%, due to “toughening market conditions” since the start of 2008