Roblox’s rapid redirection towards attracting brands and advertisers with new tools, including programmatic advertising, is a savvy and ultimately necessary strategy to position the company as a global platform for games and entertainment IP

Roblox will comfortably hit 100 million DAUs in 2025, as growth rates begin to run upwards of 25%, aided by aggressive geographic expansion. New content partnerships could accelerate it faster 

For TV and film marketers, led by Netflix, Roblox is becoming a default option for immersive experiences and games, while actively avoiding indirect support for Disney through Fortnite

Classified advertising is estimated to have grown circa 7% in the UK in 2024, and forecast to grow 4% in 2025. Specialist platforms own these marketplaces, with both consumer and industry network effects the driving force behind platform strength

Online platforms are gradually becoming vertical-specific search providers, with dominant players Rightmove and Auto Trader looking for further growth through integrations up and down their respective value chains

The properties vertical is bouncing back as buyers adjust to ‘higher for longer’ interest rates, while recruitment sees ongoing polarisation amidst ongoing uptake of employer-facing AI. Autos, insulated from interest rates, grapples with the looming sector shift of EV quotas

Service revenue growth dropped further to -1.7% this quarter as pricing remains under pressure and in-contract price increases no longer benefit

Competition is heating up in Germany and France, and Digi is taking an aggressive stance as it enters the Portuguese and Belgian markets

While there is increasing awareness that investment levels in Europe are compromised by the current market structure, support for in-market consolidation remains lukewarm at best at the EU level

The UK altnets collectively lost over £1bn in 2023, with most metrics unrealistically distant from what they need to be for a sustainable model, particularly the smaller retail-focused operators.

Consolidation is essential for survival, and CityFibre at least has a reasonable case for long term sustainability with a wholesale model and Sky as a customer, and looks the most viable altnet consolidator in our view, with VMO2/nexfibre able to pick up the pieces should the sector fail.

A lack of long-term viability and related financing difficulties will dramatically slow network roll-out, reducing the altnet pressure on the rest of the sector even if consolidation improves penetration levels.

UK news publishers are experimenting with generative AI to realise newsroom efficiencies. Different businesses see a different balance of risk and reward: some eager locals are already using it for newsgathering and content creation, while quality nationals hold back from reader-facing uses.

Publishers must protect the integrity of their content. Beyond hallucinations, overuse of generative AI carries the longer-term commercial and reputational risk of losing what makes a news product distinctive.

Far less certain is the role of generative AI in delivering the holy grail of higher revenues. New product offerings could be more of an opportunity for businesses that rely on subscribers than those that are ad-supported.

In the next fixed line regulatory review—TAR 2026—Ofcom is likely to maintain light regulation on Openreach’s pricing levels, while also maintaining strict restrictions on its pricing structures, which both help altnets. 

On other matters, none of the interested parties (Openreach/altnets/ISPs) look like getting exactly what they want, but by and large the industry will likely get what it needs—regulatory stability with a broadly pro-investment slant.

The next TAR in 2031 is likely to be more dramatic, but by our estimates, even a full return to cost-based charging will not result in significant wholesale price cuts, which is likely to be a relief to longer term investors in BT and the altnets alike.

Service revenue growth dropped off by 2.7ppts this quarter, and into negative territory, as operators in all markets suffered weaker growth
 

Operators in France and the UK implemented price increases this quarter but re-contracting absorbed any positive revenue impact. In Italy, regulatory intervention thwarted operator plans to raise prices
 

Increasing competitive intensity in France and Germany comes at a time when operators can ill-afford ARPU dilution and high churn
 

Market revenue growth was just positive at 0.2% in Q2, as lower price increases were mitigated by some temporary ARPU gains.

Growth is likely to drop negative in the rest of year however, with continued weak volume growth compounded by temporary ARPU gains unwinding.

Pricing structures differ quite widely as regards landline offers and out-of-contract pricing, and all could benefit from adopting best practice, a marginal gain worth pursuing in a tough market.
 

The UK’s choice of policy for rebalancing the relationships between news publishers and tech platforms is on the agenda of the CMA’s Digital Markets Unit for 2025. The UK is expected to steer clear of the pitfalls of Canada’s news bargaining regime, which led Meta to block news, crashing referrals.

In the UK, Google’s relationships with news publishers are much deeper than referrals, including advertising and market-specific voluntary arrangements that support a robust supply of journalism, and dovetail with the industry’s focus on technology (including AI) and distribution.

The rise of generative AI has also ignited the news industry’s focus on monetising the use of its content in LLMs. AI products could threaten the prominence, usage and positive public perceptions of journalism—this might require progress in journalism’s online infrastructure, supported by public policy.

Service revenue growth was broadly flat at 1.7% as improvements in Germany offset weaknesses in Italy.

The impact of price increases has been mixed, with subscriber losses dulling their upside, and the mixed picture looks set to continue into Q2.

The market continues to be challenging with elevated competition at the low end, pressure from some regulators to increase network coverage, and a somewhat soft EBITDA outlook.