Vodafone's headline revenue growth of +3.7% is actually a small decline once Rest of World exchange depreciation is accounted for. Europe, however, delivered an improving revenue trend to +0.4%, as signalled at Vodafone's FY results announcement.

The mix and operating trends are less positive, with growth driven by low-margin B2B, and subscriber losses accelerating in German fixed. Investors will be weighing up whether these results are green shoots of a recovery or another false dawn.

Although the company may reach its guided EBITDA on assumed exchange rates, it looks set to fall short in euro terms, which has implications for FCF and dividend cover.

Advertising activity has shifted dramatically from brand-building to activation in the past few years. Advertisers should resist the pressure to spend even more on activation: those that rebalance to brand building can gain a long-term competitive advantage.

Brand advertising works by building up memories and associations, supporting market share and pricing. This is done best by television, print, audio and out-of-home, but in a rapidly fragmenting media landscape online video and display can no longer just be a supporting act.

Investing in proper cross-channel audience measurement and planning will allow advertisers to use brand advertising effectively across all media, as well as supporting broadcaster and publisher ad revenue. 

The UK economy’s zombie state persists 15 months since the cost-of-living crisis ignited, depressing real incomes by 2%. A new headwind is the rising cost of credit, which could tip the UK into a mild technical recession

Resolving the cost-of-living crisis is key to a recovery in 2024. Inflation is spreading from imported and traded goods to services; while CPI inflation is decreasing slowly, wage growth could ignite a wage-price spiral

Further structural change in advertising is being driven by post-pandemic ecommerce, which is 30% of retail sales excluding fuels and is underpinned by hybrid work-from-home (WFH)

A new era is starting for the big consumer tech companies, as they venture outside of their traditional comfort zones to bet on future growth—most obviously in AI, and then cloud, gaming, headsets and video.

Competition in the tech space is intensifying as incumbents go head-to-head in new revenue growth areas also populated by insurgent startups—their M&A watched closely by competition regulators.

Fat profit margins have ensured vast financial resources are available to pour into competition, but hitting the right targets for consumer engagement is key to success.

The Italian football league is auctioning its media rights for up to five seasons from 2024/25, with bids due by 14 June.

As in previous cycles, Sky and DAZN will probably bid below the minimum prices, which could trigger further auctions.

Plans for a league DTC service are unrealistic, and free-to-air broadcasts would be uneconomical.

On 18 May 2023, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2023 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Financial Times, and Salesforce.

With over 550 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives, policy leaders, and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation, and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry.

This is the edited transcript of Session Four, covering: news publisher growth, the way forward for UK telecoms, regulation, and closing remarks. Videos of the presentations will be available on the conference website.

On 18 May 2023, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2023 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Financial Times, and Salesforce.

With over 550 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives, policy leaders, and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation, and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry.

This is the edited transcript of Session Two, covering: Sky’s plans for the future, the road to net zero, brand building in the digital world, and advancing diversity and inclusion in tech. Videos of the presentations will be available on the conference website.

On 18 May 2023, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2023 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Financial Times, and Salesforce

With over 550 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives, policy leaders, and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation, and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry

This is the edited transcript of Session One, covering: the future of digital experiences, the streaming economy, and harnessing AI for good. Videos of the presentations will be available on the conference website

We forecast broadcaster viewing to shrink to below half of total video viewing by 2028 (48%)—down from 64% today—as streaming services gain share of long-form viewing time.

On the key advertising battleground of the TV set, broadcasters will still retain scale with a 63% viewing share by 2028, even as SVOD and YouTube double their impact.

Short-form video will continue to displace long-form as video-first apps (e.g. YouTube, Twitch, TikTok) gain further popularity and others (e.g. Facebook, Instagram) continue a relentless pivot to video. This will expand the amount of video watched and transition habits—even amongst older demographics.

Whilst Vodafone’s new strategy has some merits, its attempts to appease everyone involves inherent contradictions, ambiguity, and contrived attempts to prove its value as a conglomerate.

Its rapidly declining FCF outlook is calling dividend sustainability into question but there is much insistence that financial prospects will improve from here. We view this year’s guidance as achievable, but not easily so, and growth thereafter as on the optimistic side.

Corporate break-up is off the table for now with e& in the strategic driving seat and in empire-building mode. Consolidation in the UK and Italy remains on the agenda however, and arguably is the most tangible potential upside for investors.