European mobile service revenue growth again disappointed in Q4, dropping slightly from -8.9% to -9.1%, with underlying revenue growth dropping a little further from -6.0% to -6.3%, again reaching a record low

There had been hopes that improved GDP growth would drive a volume rebound, that price declines would start to annualise out, and that declining out-of-bundle usage would wane in its impact as this usage declined. In the event, ongoing price competition from smaller operators, MVNOs and quad play offerings, combined with surging use of OTT communications platforms, have dominated trends

In the medium term, the development of 4G and Vodafone’s Project Spring may bring some much needed network differentiation back to the market, allowing pricing power to return to the larger operators. However, it will be 2015-2016 before these factors come into play: in the short term, the main source of optimism is consolidation

UK mobile market service revenue growth improved on both a reported and underlying basis by 1.2ppts in Q4, a very welcome result after six consecutive quarters of declining underlying growth. Reported revenue is still in decline, at -1.6%, but it is the most modest decline among larger European countries, and compares to -5.0% in early 2013 EE is still leading in 4G coverage and performance, with around twice the coverage of its nearest rivals of basic 4G, double speed 4G now covering around 30% of the population, and plans for quadruple speed 4G to launch in 2014. Vodafone may prove the biggest network challenger going forward, with plans to increase capex as part of its Project Spring initiative Maintaining (or increasing) the current level of pricing is key to the industry returning to revenue growth in 2014. We would note that the smallest operator, H3G, is fairly unlikely to return to being a price discounter and put pressure on market prices, leaving the onus on the ‘big 3’ to stay disciplined, with a small but significant risk from SIM-only MVNO offers gaining more traction

The French Professional Football League (LFP) is to auction its 2016-20 broadcasting rights next month, one year earlier than expected. The anticipated auction (and short notice) increases pressure on rival LFP broadcasters – a failure to renew their existing rights deals would unsettle their position for over two years

Due to uncertainty over the future ownership of Canal+ and the political background of Al Jazeera’s beIN Sports we believe that both would prefer to maintain the status quo: the top two weekly games on Canal+ and the other eight on beIN Sports

The LFP rights are precisely packaged to prevent this, and to force the two to compete at least for one lot. As the market leader Canal+ has more to lose, while beIN Sports could sustain its current complementary positioning with fewer games

Explosive growth in take-up of smartphones and tablets means that the effective size of the internet will increase by several multiples within the next few years. This transformation in scale comes with a major change in character and operating dynamics, creating new opportunities and revenue streams.

Twitter is unique amongst social apps: it gives new users a blank canvas in which they can (and must) create their own social network reflecting their own interests, hence building an ‘Interest Graph’, but onboarding new users remains a challenge.

Revenue at Twitter is now on a $600 million annual run-rate, scaling rapidly since the introduction of ‘native ads’, and seems set for further growth: the key question is whether it can achieve breakout user growth and mass market scale.

On 29 November, the Leveson Inquiry into the culture, practices and ethics of the press finally issued its report. Its verdicts on the conduct of the press, politicians and police were less severe than expected.

The three main political parties have accepted most of the report’s recommendations, but have disagreed over the use of statute. As expected, the Conservatives are against, while Labour and the Lib Dems are in favour.

Subsequent cross-party talks and negotiations between editors have so far failed to produce agreement, with the process only becoming more opaque as time goes on. The shape of the future regulatory system remains uncertain.

European mobile market service revenue growth dropped again in Q3, by 1.9ppts to -6.2%. This was not helped by a substantial increase in the MTR impact, driven by a big cut in Italy, but underlying revenue growth still fell by 1.3ppts In stark contrast to Europe, the US mobile market continues to grow apace, with there being over 10ppts between the growth rates of the two regions. The most obvious difference between the markets is the very much higher levels of capex spent by the US incumbents, which drives their superior network quality and coverage, and hence price premia, and hence superior growth The European incumbents have not (yet) used their greater ability to spend on capex to increase the spending gap with smaller operators, with 4G launches (mostly) being low profile with low initial coverage (the UK being a notable exception to this). While this is an understandable approach given the prevailing macroeconomic conditions, it does mean that closing the growth gap with the US remains a distant prospect

This report explores and quantifies expenditure in the local media landscape. Flat disposable income and the rise in e-commerce continue to force many retailers from the high street, though we argue first-rate small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have the opportunity to grow share of the local market, despite these pressures

Technology has radically disrupted the way local businesses reach out to consumers. Not only has advertising expenditure moved online, but SME spend is dissipating into other activities, including distribution and platform developments, PR, social and sponsorship activities and live events

The rise of smartphones has created the tantalising prospect of a perfect local media solution. We assess the level of opportunity for Google, Facebook, Hibu, local newspapers, local radio, local TV and hyperlocal organisations

Google’s income in Q3 was hit by fx headwinds and a rise in traffic acquisition costs (TAC) for its ad business as well as by higher than expected losses at Motorola

Headline growth in gross advertising revenue continued to slide, primarily due to the effect of the strong dollar; of more concern, rising TAC cut gross margin by 3 ppts

Mobile now accounts for the majority of growth in ad revenue, which should improve as mobile ad yields rise, though net margin could decline if Google has to pay out a greater share to partners such as Apple

The second of our four reports on specialist advertising focuses on the property sector, and specifically assesses the implications for Rightmove and the sector generally of the merger of Zoopla with DMGT's property portfolio, which includes Find a Property and Prime Location The merger creates a market duopoly that will put print media under further pressure, though Estate Agents remain attracted to the lead-generation and attractive branding benefits of print distribution and layout Meanwhile, the sector has rebased in scale: while house prices are in aggregate very stable, transaction volumes are still only a little more than half the market peak in 2007

Since the onset of the recession in 2008-09, the revenues and profitability of the recruiters, auto dealers and estate agents which purchase print and online advertising media have been impaired by lower transaction volumes, putting pressure on advertising budgets. New digital marketing and communications requirements have further claimed budgets previously allocated to print, which will continue to decline in absolute and relative terms

Recruitment has been the classified vertical with the most rapid print-to-digital transition, to the detriment of regional newspapers mainly. Online offers national reach at a fraction of the cost per listing

Unlike autos or property, recruitment is a fragmented vertical across a number of large job boards and niche sites serving identifiable professions