Market revenue growth was robust in Q3 at 1.4%, but heavily supported by price rises whose effect will wane over the next year.

Broadband net adds remained negative, with pay TV and telephony more negative still, mainly thanks to strained consumer finances.

Declining volumes and waning price rise boosts are likely to lead the market into decline next year, with a recovering economy needed to reverse this.

 

CEO Bob Iger has announced that Disney is now in a "building" phase—indicating that the strategic turnaround is complete—however, upcoming breakeven of  streaming products owes much to cuts on programming spend

With the rest of Hulu soon to be acquired, Disney looks as if it is pulling out of India—this will make the company's presence outside of the US even more peripheral

In the UK, Disney+'s advertising-supported tier is now live, however, there are forces at play that limit Disney's ability to execute its tiering strategy as effectively as its biggest streaming competitor

BT continued to perform well financially in Q2, with revenue and EBITDA growth remaining robust, and full year cashflow guidance nudged up.

ARPU growth remained robust across fixed, mobile and Openreach, but subscriber growth was weaker, especially in mobile and Openreach, and this will become more of a concern if it persists.

Maintaining growth across retail divisions will be a challenge as the price rise effect wanes, especially in weak economic conditions, and while Openreach’s FTTP roll-out is going well, full success is still not assured.

With a difficult price rise adjustment now behind it, VMO2’s subscriber momentum is much improved, in part aided by accelerated network expansion.

Backbook pricing remains under pressure on the fixed network with revenues down 1.2% in spite of sizeable price rises and footprint expansion—upcoming OTS may exacerbate this issue.

VMO2 has thus far only countered the downside of the UK’s fibre revolution. A new approach to branding and expansion of its addressable market are upside opportunities—with the ultimate potential to even deliver improvements on its previous position.

Vodafone has struck a deal to sell its ailing Spanish business in a deal worth €5bn, equivalent to 5.3x EBITDAaL.

While the pragmatism of the move will be applauded, the valuation may be viewed as disappointing by some.

The deal removes an enduring drag on the company’s financials, providing scope for better European trends, but this is one of several challenges facing the company, with the dividend policy question now to the fore.

Unable to match Netflix, financially-pressed Hollywood studios are cutting content output and reassessing the DTC model

Price rises are being forced through, however for challengers this is asking a lot from subs, who don’t see an improvement in product or usage

The corporate landscape is fluid—loss-making DTC platforms and revenue-plunging linear channels are candidates for M&A

The metaverse is a radical expansion of online experiences— sparking a host of new safety challenges on harmful content, economic activity, and privacy.

Building safety into the metaverse will take a village: platforms and communities will set policies and moderation. Regulators could struggle to future-proof their tools, especially with decentralised platforms.

AI age verification and moderation is in a race against AI hazards: disinformation, deepfakes and dynamic user content all intensify harms in immersive settings.

Project Gigabit, the process of awarding subsidies to cover the hardest-to-reach 10-15% of the UK with gigabit broadband, is well underway, with altnets having been awarded all of the contracts won so far, although these are only 5-10% of the prospective total.

While wholesale provision is mandatory under the contracts, logic and experience suggests that this option may prove impractical, leaving the national ISPs (such as BT, Sky and TalkTalk) at risk of losing up to 15% of the market, and consumers being denied hard-won choice.

Openreach would be well advised to build its own network in these areas using the ducts and poles of the subsidy winners (also mandated), to protect the prospects of its ISP customers and maintain consumer choice.

Service revenue growth almost doubled this quarter to 2.4% aided by price rises in the UK, Spain, and France, but remains well below inflation-levels.

The revenue boost from in-contract price rises will ultimately disappear as customers recontract, dampening the EBITDA outlook as costs continue to rise.

Operators are looking to other strategies to strengthen their positions, including edging up new-customer pricing, M&A, and attracting wholesale MVNO business.

 

After a period of stagnation, many of the core business lines at the US tech mega-caps are back to posting respectable growth figures. The rest of the year will bed in strong revenue growth.

However, the sector is still facing a transition to new priorities. Core business strength should allow firms to shift from cost-cutting to the investment needed to fight the more competitive era they are facing.

AI is the number one focus, but the market for AI tools themselves is still nascent. Applying AI to internal problems has more promise. For instance, it is helping Meta solve its measurement and engagement problems.