UK mobile market service revenue growth improved on both a reported and underlying basis by 1.2ppts in Q4, a very welcome result after six consecutive quarters of declining underlying growth. Reported revenue is still in decline, at -1.6%, but it is the most modest decline among larger European countries, and compares to -5.0% in early 2013 EE is still leading in 4G coverage and performance, with around twice the coverage of its nearest rivals of basic 4G, double speed 4G now covering around 30% of the population, and plans for quadruple speed 4G to launch in 2014. Vodafone may prove the biggest network challenger going forward, with plans to increase capex as part of its Project Spring initiative Maintaining (or increasing) the current level of pricing is key to the industry returning to revenue growth in 2014. We would note that the smallest operator, H3G, is fairly unlikely to return to being a price discounter and put pressure on market prices, leaving the onus on the ‘big 3’ to stay disciplined, with a small but significant risk from SIM-only MVNO offers gaining more traction
The French Professional Football League (LFP) is to auction its 2016-20 broadcasting rights next month, one year earlier than expected. The anticipated auction (and short notice) increases pressure on rival LFP broadcasters – a failure to renew their existing rights deals would unsettle their position for over two years
Due to uncertainty over the future ownership of Canal+ and the political background of Al Jazeera’s beIN Sports we believe that both would prefer to maintain the status quo: the top two weekly games on Canal+ and the other eight on beIN Sports
The LFP rights are precisely packaged to prevent this, and to force the two to compete at least for one lot. As the market leader Canal+ has more to lose, while beIN Sports could sustain its current complementary positioning with fewer games
Vodafone Europe’s revenue growth was again weak, flat on the previous quarter in reported terms at -10%, but underlying revenue growth declined slightly, despite a strong recovery in GDP growth
There are some limited signs of recovery – improved contract net adds, sustained data volume growth, an end in sight to ARPU dilution – but realistically Vodafone’s admirable organic investment push will not reap rewards within the year
More near term interest is on M&A, with Vodafone shopping for fixed line operations, important in-market mobile consolidation regulatory decisions coming up, and interest in Vodafone itself possible after the Verizon deal closes later this month
Ofcom has been instructed by the UK government to charge the mobile operators ‘full market value’ for the 2G spectrum they have been using for many years, despite there being no liquid market for the spectrum
Ofcom’s general approach to such an imponderable question is eminently sensible, but we disagree with the detail of their methodology on three key aspects, which makes the current proposed charges over three times too high in our view, effectively charging the industry a one-off tax of £4.5bn
The elevated fee levels are (perhaps) still affordable on their own, but coupled with other recent regulatory decisions the UK is in danger of being seen as a hostile regulatory environment, with negative consequences for future investment levels
Vodafone’s revenue growth has improved, with core underlying growth rising both relative to the previous quarter and relative to its competitors
Vodafone UK’s new broadband product is not very competitively priced compared to the offers from Carphone Warehouse and Orange, costing £5-10 a month more than the nearest equivalent packages
In a fit of pique over increasing subsidies, Vodafone UK is dropping Carphone Warehouse (CPW) as a distributor, and moving exclusively to Phones4U with lower subsidy levels and volume guarantees, while Orange is reportedly also considering its position with CPW
Vodafone is taking the first step in implementing its convergence strategy in the UK by buying broadband from BT Wholesale; while we believe the strategy is misguided, Vodafone’s approach is at least cautious
The company is at least unlikely to be losing money on the product, and is perhaps just sensibly testing the water for positive consumer interest in a bundled package from Vodafone
We expect the water to be very cold - results from Orange, NTL and BT suggest continued very low consumer interest in fixed-mobile convergence, and we doubt that Vodafone will fare much better
Vodafone blamed a harsh competitive environment and the timing of Easter for its low revenue growth in core markets reported this week. Its growth did at least not decline again, although we expect that Vodafone will again prove to be underperforming its competitors as they report their figures over the coming weeks
CPW will also benefit from its partnership with AOL for portal advertising, content and other internet-based applications, relatively small but fast-growing value-added services in which CPW has little experience or market position, which will prove important in terms of both customer retention and margins.
Spain’s top football club FC Barcelona (Barça) has threatened to withdraw its broadcast licence from Sogecable unless it matches an offer from Mediapro that is almost double the current annual fee for the two football seasons commencing 2006/2007
The present TV advertising slump appears due to a uniquely British combination of very rapid digital TV growth and singular advertising airtime regulations that include the Contract Rights Renewal (CRR) remedy