UK mobile market service revenue growth improved on both a reported and underlying basis by 1.2ppts in Q4, a very welcome result after six consecutive quarters of declining underlying growth. Reported revenue is still in decline, at -1.6%, but it is the most modest decline among larger European countries, and compares to -5.0% in early 2013 EE is still leading in 4G coverage and performance, with around twice the coverage of its nearest rivals of basic 4G, double speed 4G now covering around 30% of the population, and plans for quadruple speed 4G to launch in 2014. Vodafone may prove the biggest network challenger going forward, with plans to increase capex as part of its Project Spring initiative Maintaining (or increasing) the current level of pricing is key to the industry returning to revenue growth in 2014. We would note that the smallest operator, H3G, is fairly unlikely to return to being a price discounter and put pressure on market prices, leaving the onus on the ‘big 3’ to stay disciplined, with a small but significant risk from SIM-only MVNO offers gaining more traction
Vodafone Europe’s revenue growth was again weak, flat on the previous quarter in reported terms at -10%, but underlying revenue growth declined slightly, despite a strong recovery in GDP growth
There are some limited signs of recovery – improved contract net adds, sustained data volume growth, an end in sight to ARPU dilution – but realistically Vodafone’s admirable organic investment push will not reap rewards within the year
More near term interest is on M&A, with Vodafone shopping for fixed line operations, important in-market mobile consolidation regulatory decisions coming up, and interest in Vodafone itself possible after the Verizon deal closes later this month
Ofcom has been instructed by the UK government to charge the mobile operators ‘full market value’ for the 2G spectrum they have been using for many years, despite there being no liquid market for the spectrum
Ofcom’s general approach to such an imponderable question is eminently sensible, but we disagree with the detail of their methodology on three key aspects, which makes the current proposed charges over three times too high in our view, effectively charging the industry a one-off tax of £4.5bn
The elevated fee levels are (perhaps) still affordable on their own, but coupled with other recent regulatory decisions the UK is in danger of being seen as a hostile regulatory environment, with negative consequences for future investment levels
Vodafone’s European revenue growth has dropped again in the latest quarter, both relative to the prior quarter and its competitors, with Spain performing particularly poorly
Ofcom is proposing taking back and re-auctioning over 30% of Vodafone and O2’s 2G spectrum as part of more general plans for ‘refarming’ 2G spectrum to allow its use for 3G services
Vodafone’s European operations revenue growth dropped, but not as much as various regulatory interventions would have warranted, implying a strong operational performance
Vodafone achieved its 2006/07 full year targets on revenue and profitability, with solid revenue growth (underlying about 2% in Europe) but dropping margins (by around 2pps in Europe)
Growth in Q1 2007 for the aggregate non-Vodafone European mobile operations was 4.2%, a slight decline from 4.7% last quarter (Vodafone reports its results next week)
The new consumer data tariffs from Vodafone and Orange in the UK continue the trend towards dramatically lower data prices for high end users, although they are cunningly structured to involve more moderate increases for low end users
Vodafone and Orange are planning to share their 3G networks in the UK, and are looking at potentially sharing their 2G networks in due course