Fixing an allocation quirk at BT pushed UK broadband revenue back into growth in Q1, albeit a very modest 0.8%, thanks to continued altnet growth and a very weak underlying market.
Broadband pricing is dipping down overall, but there is not yet evidence of pricing cuts targeted in altnet areas, a massive missed opportunity in our view.
The market will remain under pressure in the short term, but in the longer term altnet pressure will fall under all realistic consolidation scenarios.
Defined roles within the advertising ecosystem are a thing of the past: everyone is adapting by building out functionality to claim share as the constants underpinning advertising—attribution, discoverability, and regulation—change.
There is a new wave of M&A, partnerships and developments from agencies, adtech, and big tech in data and AI, as all sides position themselves to reshape the terms of online advertising at a time of maximum uncertainty.
Big tech platforms are leveraging their scale and AI investments in attempts to reset broad swathes of the market. Publishers are exposed; their way forward relies on asserting their value through direct audiences and collaboration on sector-wide innovations
In a soft market for both consumer and B2B, service revenue trends continue to be dominated by in-contract price increase dynamics.
VodafoneThree’s launch signalled a cautious tone about prospects for mobile growth, presumably allowing for a degree of integration disruption.
VodafoneThree and VMO2 traded 79 MHz of usable spectrum, leaving VodafoneThree in a strong position spectrum-wise, albeit with some challenges given that its merger conditions reduce flexibility in its coverage approach.
Netflix’s deal to carry TF1 channels and on-demand content in France indicates that it is now interested in becoming an aggregator—its scale and reach make it attractive but terms will not suit everyone
This reach should be advantageous for TF1, giving the company access to viewers that currently are not regularly exposed to its programming, while also boosting frequency
For FTA operators this deal highlights a possible template to maintain some stability in reach, with less of the uncertainty of content distribution on YouTube
As Ligue 1 seeks yet another broadcast arrangement for next season, the French league’s value is expected to erode further.
Outside the UK, the value of major leagues’ live rights are trending downwards. The Champions League—now sold by Relevent—is the silver lining, seeking to sign up a streamer.
Global streaming platforms have a growing appetite for sports rights—but European leagues need patience.
VodafoneThree's launch incorporates a number of swift and astute commercial decisions, which is particularly welcome given the challenging balancing act that the company needs to perform
The network upside will be felt quite quickly for Three customers primarily, with protection for Vodafone customers built in. Longer-term, the Government policy shift towards better coverage may require investment beyond the committed £11bn plan
We view some moves as helpful to prospects in the broadband market, others less so, and continue to have question marks about the attractiveness of this segment for VodafoneThree
Industrial scale theft of video services, especially live sport, is in the ascendance. Combating piracy is a formidable challenge, providing a direct threat to profitability for broadcasters and streamers.
Big tech is both friend and foe in solving the piracy problem. Conflicting incentives harm consumer safety by providing easy discovery of illegal pirated services, and reduced friction through low-cost hardware such as the Amazon Firestick.
Over twenty years since launch, the DRM solutions provided by Google and Microsoft are in steep decline. A complete overhaul of the technology architecture, licensing, and support model is needed. Lack of engagement with content owners indicates this a low priority.
Germany suffered a sizeable EBITDA decline in the 2H of FY25, and guidance for European EBITDA next year implies another tough year in FY26 with an underlying 5% decline for Europe as a whole excluding 1&1.
Elsewhere, the UK had a very solid FY25 and is a good news story for the Group with the merger with Three in prospect, but the Rest of World’s contribution is likely to diminish from here.
Various one-offs will support the outlook for next year, but operational execution is at the core of Vodafone’s raison d’être. Beyond some encouraging KPIs, investors continue to await meaningful evidence of such.
Advertising has outgrown the UK's wider economy by 20 percentage points since 2000 thanks to online and advertisers in export markets, especially China, targeting sales in the import-dependent UK market.
If current trends held to 2030, advertising would reach 1.7% of UK GDP, over 50% higher than 2019—we believe this to be the least likely scenario as the UK already sustains higher ad intensity than major markets.
The next recession could be the moment when online ads growth corrects and then reverts to low single-digit growth in line with the economy. A 'soft landing' is also possible, while a surprise outperformance would require more drastic structural shifts.
US tariffs and regulations are sparing no one in 2025—Microsoft, the ‘winner’ of the earnings quarter, is still making plans to protect its European business in a doomsday scenario.
Hyperscalers who have piled their eggs into cloud cannot afford a misstep—this is driving record capex to satisfy cloud demand. We expect to see lumpiness in Q2-Q3, feeding investors’ worries.
Revenue impacts have been felt first at US retail, softening ad demand, with the UK relatively protected for now. Despite relief at the 90-day ‘reset’ with China, economic and political uncertainty remains the story of the year.