Secretary of State Karen Bradley has intervened on two UK public interest grounds in 21CF’s bid for 100% ownership of Sky: media plurality, as in 2010, and a commitment to broadcasting standards, new in 2017

Ofcom will assess any implications of 21CF’s full control of Sky on whether it is ‘fit and proper’ to hold a broadcast licence, reporting back on 16 May

Undertakings are a live issue in the 2016 bid, notably to protect the editorial independence of Sky News, noting the bid faces determined opposition from certain quarters

Despite a slowing of circulation decline in 2016, UK national newspaper brands continue to face profound structural challenges, with print advertising spend expected to be down at least -15% for the year

In digital advertising, tech and distribution platforms continue to dominate growth with newspaper publishers and other content producers competing for an increasingly small slice of the revenue pie

In this context, many publishers are turning to paid membership and content subscription models to generate online revenues; success here will require a radical shift in thinking to a retailer mindset that delivers high quality reader experiences through integrated execution of tech, data, marketing and design

On 29 November, the Leveson Inquiry into the culture, practices and ethics of the press finally issued its report. Its verdicts on the conduct of the press, politicians and police were less severe than expected.

The three main political parties have accepted most of the report’s recommendations, but have disagreed over the use of statute. As expected, the Conservatives are against, while Labour and the Lib Dems are in favour.

Subsequent cross-party talks and negotiations between editors have so far failed to produce agreement, with the process only becoming more opaque as time goes on. The shape of the future regulatory system remains uncertain.

UK mobile service revenue growth nudged down in Q3 2012 by 2.0ppts to -3.8%, with 0.5ppts driven by an increase in the effect of regulated MTR cuts and 1.5ppts caused by underlying factors, largely driven by a weakening UK economy

In October EE launched its new brand and 4G service to great fanfare. The response of the other operators has been very mixed; Vodafone has indicated that it will launch a better 4G network next year, H3G has emphasised the merits of its 3G network, and O2 has not focused on networks at all. We continue to believe that EE’s 4G products will be good for its ARPU but not necessarily raw subscriber numbers, with the rebrand exercise bringing additional synergy benefits to its bottom line

The overall outlook is looking tough for the next six months, with consumer confidence still low and unlimited tariffs hitting pricing, but more promising thereafter, as the 4G premium becomes more material, and the regulated MTR cuts finally start to moderate in Q2 2013

European mobile market service revenue growth dropped again in Q3, by 1.9ppts to -6.2%. This was not helped by a substantial increase in the MTR impact, driven by a big cut in Italy, but underlying revenue growth still fell by 1.3ppts In stark contrast to Europe, the US mobile market continues to grow apace, with there being over 10ppts between the growth rates of the two regions. The most obvious difference between the markets is the very much higher levels of capex spent by the US incumbents, which drives their superior network quality and coverage, and hence price premia, and hence superior growth The European incumbents have not (yet) used their greater ability to spend on capex to increase the spending gap with smaller operators, with 4G launches (mostly) being low profile with low initial coverage (the UK being a notable exception to this). While this is an understandable approach given the prevailing macroeconomic conditions, it does mean that closing the growth gap with the US remains a distant prospect

EE announced its 4G pricing today, with the prices broadly set at a premium of around £5 a month to those of 3G services from Orange, T-Mobile, O2 and Vodafone

Perhaps more importantly, the pricing includes unlimited voice and text as standard, which pushes the minimum spend to £36 a month, a substantial uplift from current average contract values of £20-£25

Whether the £5 premium is sustainable or not, EE’s efforts to promote it (and competitor responses) will likely shift the market focus to network quality as opposed to price and handset range, a very healthy development in our view

A number of developments over the summer have, at least in theory, made the UK 4G mobile spectrum outlook a lot clearer: in July Ofcom issued its final policy statement regarding the 800MHz and 2.6GHz ‘4G’ auctions, in August it decided to allow Everything Everywhere (EE) to ‘refarm’ its 1800MHz spectrum for 4G use, and EE announced that it had sold 15MHz of its 1800MHz spectrum to H3G

The main short term implication is that EE will have clear short term advantage of being the only operator offering 4G (LTE) services for about 12 months from (roughly) the end of September 2012 to (roughly) the end of September 2013

The main uncertainty is legal action; O2 and/or Vodafone may appeal Ofcom’s decision to allow EE to refarm its 1800MHz spectrum, which would trigger EE to appeal the 4G spectrum auction rules, and give 4G in the UK an unhelpful delay

News Corporation’s Fox is to acquire a controlling stake in the Eredivisie Live pay-TV channel, which holds long-term rights to the top football league in The Netherlands.

The guarantees that Fox will give to the league imply that revenues will more than double over the twelve years from 2013-14. Although we see growth potential in the historically underdeveloped Dutch pay-TV market, this looks challenging.

Eredivisie Live operates in a wholesale market, making it very difficult to replicate the Sky platform model. The rationale for the deal appears instead to lie in an effort by Fox to opportunistically strengthen its global portfolio of sports channels.

In this presentation we show our analysis of the UK mobile market performance to Q2 2012 and consider the outlook both in terms of market growth and competitive dynamics

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request.