The temporary cool-off in hype around VR following a very buzzy 2016 is not reducing the flow of investment and talent into the industry, notably in video production utilising 360Video technology; setting the stage for the development of a truly new entertainment medium

Fully immersive interactive worlds will continue to be the mainstay of the video games industry, while video entertainment will exist in a multi-track environment, with some genres (news, documentaries , natural history) making 360Video mainstream well before long-form narrative-driven entertainment

2017 will still be a challenging year for consumer device VR roll-out and mass market adoption; Oculus, Google, and Sony continue to seed the market, providing large scale funding and equipment directly to developers and content producers

Despite a slowing of circulation decline in 2016, UK national newspaper brands continue to face profound structural challenges, with print advertising spend expected to be down at least -15% for the year

In digital advertising, tech and distribution platforms continue to dominate growth with newspaper publishers and other content producers competing for an increasingly small slice of the revenue pie

In this context, many publishers are turning to paid membership and content subscription models to generate online revenues; success here will require a radical shift in thinking to a retailer mindset that delivers high quality reader experiences through integrated execution of tech, data, marketing and design

Streaming is now mainstream and we predict 113% growth in expenditure on subscriptions for 2015-18 in the top four markets (US, UK, Germany and France)

Free vs paid-for streaming is the central question for the music ecosystem: free yields fractions of pennies, making subscription the only credible business model

Market leader Spotify is facing competition from tech giants Amazon, Apple and Google, with deep pockets, for whom content is a pawn in a larger game

Zoopla and The Digital Property Group, DMGT’s property portfolio which includes Findaproperty, Primelocation and Globrix, announced a merger on 14 October 2011. Under the terms of the proposed merger, DMGT would receive a 55% interest in the merged entity

A merged Zoopla and DPG will compete more effectively with market leader Rightmove, in a property market scaled down by one-third in terms of the number of transactions

We think the merger will give advertisers a better choice and constrain Rightmove’s pricing power, which has seen hefty fee increases on members, most recently in 2010, in 2011 and most recently again in November 2011

National newspaper circulation continued its inexorable decline in September, with daily circulation down 7% year-on-year, although we estimate retail sales value decline was marginal

Sunday popular and mid-market newspaper circulation fell 4% month-on-month, as News of the World buyers continue to drop out of the market; we estimate around a third of ex-readers have not migrated to another title

Publishers are responding to circulation decline in a variety of ways, from churning out bulks to maintain scale, to increasing cover prices, axing international editions and developing their subscriber base

In the context of his Inquiry, Lord Leveson invited Claire Enders, as “one of the UK’s foremost media business analysts”, to kick off the seminar series on the 6 October with a synoptic presentation on “Competitive pressures on the press”. The Inquiry is interested in understanding the market economics of the mainstream media, including the impact of technology

This presentation brings together our existing work on the newspaper and consumer magazines industry, with an emphasis on the former, highlighting the challenges to the print media of the internet

A video transcript of Claire’s presentation and the debate on the session’s subject of “Competitive pressures on the press and the pressures on journalism”, may be accessed on the site of the Leveson inquiry, at www.levesoninquiry.org.uk

UK classified advertising in print and digital media fell -9% in 2010 to £2.76 billion, and we expect a further decline of -7% in 2011.

Our annual review and outlook concerns the classified advertising categories of recruitment, property, autos (used) and directories, across all media. We assess the continuing structural shift from print formats to less expensive digital media, in the context of prolonged recessionary pressures on local economies in the UK (bar London), which have reduced annual transaction volumes in 2010 by -28% in recruitment, -45% in property and just -16% in used cars, in relation to the peak in 2007.

A key development in recent quarters has been the rapid adoption of smartphones and tablets as emerging platforms for classified advertising by the industries serving them. Consumers are enjoying the additional benefits of on-the-move data (e.g. in the forecourts of auto dealers) and instantaneous updates (e.g. for property rentals), which advertisers are keen to exploit, providing additional revenue opportunities for classified media. B2B classified platforms also monetise integrated brand and listings solutions, plus marketplace tools. New models are evolving that will have implications for other media and in some cases, industry supply chains.

Trinity Mirror, Northern & Shell and DMGT helped the market more or less offset the absence of the News of the World, though impressive volumes have come at a price

More generally, newspaper circulations have a temporary reprieve, as strong newsflow but also discounts and marketing techniques have been deployed to attract readers

What happens next at News International, and also competitor responses, could soon change market dynamics again

The uncovering of criminal behaviour at one newspaper (so far) has led to a much broader review of how the press is regulated, seeking to put a stop to dishonest and unethical behaviour, legal or illegal, and touching on ownership, ethics and on the freedom of the press in general

However, much of investigative journalism relies on activities that are certainly dishonest and arguably open to prosecution: any new code and enforcement will need to rely on judgement and selectivity, not prescription

Statutory, compulsory, enforceable regulation of the press will risk running into the sand in a world in which casual chat between friends is viewable by millions on social networks and celebrity gossip is sent to pixel in Los Angeles or São Paulo, not Wapping

Growth in advertising for TV and the largest popular newspapers has not spread to local media, with regional press suffering declines in recruitment, auto and retail in 2010 despite colossal falls the previous year

Operating profit recovery in 2010 demonstrates firm management cost control, although the largest businesses have suffered 20% decline in annual profits since 2006

Publishers have engaged in various brand extensions, yet digital and other revenues remain stubbornly low, suggesting the scale of opportunity is destined to be a fraction of that from the sector’s recent past – and that consolidation is an industry inevitability