Mobile service revenue growth finally got close to the rate of inflation this quarter, doubling to 7.5% as the operators benefitted from mid-teen price rises.
Growth will wane from here with expected revenue growth of 6% this calendar year and 3% next, with ongoing cost-inflation pressures.
H3G looks set to fare better than others on the top-line in 2024 but its profitability is looking somewhat irredeemable, with negative cashflow even with more normalised capex.
Market revenue growth surged to 2% in Q2, but entirely-and-more driven by price rises, with underlying trends negative across volumes and ARPU.
Broadband volumes in particular turned sharply negative, largely due to a post-lockdown hangover combining with weak economic conditions.
The outlook is bleak: price rise benefits are set to wane and then reverse, and weak volumes will feed through, with economic recovery needed for a return to sustainable growth.
BT got its financial year off to a strong start in Q1, with Group revenue and EBITDA growth of 4%/5% both well on track to hit guidance of merely 'growth'.
Price rises across broadband, mobile and Openreach all landed well, driving strong ARPU growth of 5%/9%/10% respectively, but subscriber growth was likely weak, mainly reflecting a tough environment.
Growth is set to wane across the year as consumer price rise boosts start to re-contract out, leaving Openreach as the main growth driver for as long as the economic environment remains challenging.
Vodafone's headline revenue growth of +3.7% is actually a small decline once Rest of World exchange depreciation is accounted for. Europe, however, delivered an improving revenue trend to +0.4%, as signalled at Vodafone's FY results announcement.
The mix and operating trends are less positive, with growth driven by low-margin B2B, and subscriber losses accelerating in German fixed. Investors will be weighing up whether these results are green shoots of a recovery or another false dawn.
Although the company may reach its guided EBITDA on assumed exchange rates, it looks set to fall short in euro terms, which has implications for FCF and dividend cover.
Social tariffs have provided relief for some at a time of household income squeeze and otherwise unavoidable high inflation-driven telco price increases.
Adoption has risen but remains very low, limiting their effectiveness, and more widespread adoption would expose their shortcomings, with the risk of penalizing low cost operators and significantly increasing prices for non-adopters (by up to 20%).
A better approach might be to recognize that affordability issues are narrower but deeper than current social tariffs can address, with fuller, centrally funded subsidies targeted more narrowly at those most in need.
EE appears to be soft-launching split contracts—it will become the final UK operator to offer these deals.
Split contracts are popular and particularly useful for higher-end handsets as they allow consumers to pay off their device over a longer period, dramatically reducing their monthly payments.
Wider availability of split contracts will take some of the shine off O2 and Vodafone's offerings, having been a key point of differentiation for O2 for many years, and a driver of growth for Vodafone more recently.
Service revenue growth dipped by 0.7ppts to 1.2% this quarter—a slightly disappointing performance given the price rises implemented in some markets.
The impact of price increases has been mixed, with little revenue benefit in France, somewhat better in Spain, and a shift to Iliad in Italy.
Q2 should be stronger, with the UK price rises kicking in, the promise of a turnaround from Vodafone Germany, but a waning of price rise benefits elsewhere.
Sky has withstood the consumer crisis better than its telco peers, but owners Comcast are stepping up pressure nevertheless.
No buyer for its German unit has yet emerged. In Italy, the outcome of the ongoing Serie A rights auction will shape that company’s growth prospects.
Looking forward, Sky has built a solid content supply line and is likely to strengthen further from the deflation following the end of the SVOD bubble.
Market revenue growth turned (slightly) negative in Q1 2023, driven by weak demand and the waning of 2022 price boosts.
Next quarter will benefit from the high 2023 existing customer price increase, but this effect will wane across the year, and go into reverse next year due to lower inflation.
Other factors are mixed, with new-customer pricing tentatively rising, many smaller ISPs struggling, but altnet gains still likely to get worse before they get better.
Vodafone and H3G have finally announced their long-trailed merger plans, with weaker-than-expected financials and the focus squarely on the superiority of a combined network.
We view the hailed synergy estimates of £700m per year as achievable but the merged entity will need to deliver other positive financial filips to get returns above its cost of capital.
The approval case for the merger is that: it makes the operators a stronger competitive force; prices won't rise; a combined network will be superior, and that the status quo is unsustainable in any case.