Unable to match Netflix, financially-pressed Hollywood studios are cutting content output and reassessing the DTC model
Price rises are being forced through, however for challengers this is asking a lot from subs, who don’t see an improvement in product or usage
The corporate landscape is fluid—loss-making DTC platforms and revenue-plunging linear channels are candidates for M&A
DAZN and Sky have renewed their current coverage of Serie A until 2029, at a slightly lower price and with the security of a five-year contract. The ‘league channel’ DTC option was rejected by clubs.
With bids expected soon in France and the UK, DAZN seems determined to become the dominant football broadcaster in Europe.
The Italian auction outcome confirms the real-term erosion of the value of football rights across Europe, but also a more mature approach from the league.
A cooler consumer market sees Sky now facing the same pressures as its SVOD competitors, with a loss of pay-TV subscribers in the UK.
However, Sky is performing better in telecoms in both the UK and Italy. These markets are less susceptible to recession with Sky also benefitting from its position as more of a challenger than an incumbent.
Uncertainty continues to loom over both the sale of its German platform and the upcoming allocation of Serie A rights in Italy.
The three planks of Netflix's strategy to stoke growth are beginning to pick up pace: pricing optimisation, charging of non-paying users and advertising are returning benefits, if at different rates. For Q2, Netflix announced growth of 5.9 million subscribers (+8% YoY) with revenues growing but at a slower rate ($1.83 billion, +2.7% YoY)
Netflix's advertising tier remains predictably peripheral. However the restructuring of its product offering and an influx of potential new subscribers who find themselves kicked out of other accounts could result in the company beginning to present to advertisers what they really want: viewers that they cannot reach easily elsewhere, if not yet at scale
The published draft Media Bill does not appear to present major issues for Netflix from a compliance standpoint, however, a clearer understanding of what "appropriate prominence" for the PSBs means is needed to calculate the impact on the streamer's access to viewers
Sky has withstood the consumer crisis better than its telco peers, but owners Comcast are stepping up pressure nevertheless.
No buyer for its German unit has yet emerged. In Italy, the outcome of the ongoing Serie A rights auction will shape that company’s growth prospects.
Looking forward, Sky has built a solid content supply line and is likely to strengthen further from the deflation following the end of the SVOD bubble.
The Italian football league is auctioning its media rights for up to five seasons from 2024/25, with bids due by 14 June.
As in previous cycles, Sky and DAZN will probably bid below the minimum prices, which could trigger further auctions.
Plans for a league DTC service are unrealistic, and free-to-air broadcasts would be uneconomical.
We forecast broadcaster viewing to shrink to below half of total video viewing by 2028 (48%)—down from 64% today—as streaming services gain share of long-form viewing time.
On the key advertising battleground of the TV set, broadcasters will still retain scale with a 63% viewing share by 2028, even as SVOD and YouTube double their impact.
Short-form video will continue to displace long-form as video-first apps (e.g. YouTube, Twitch, TikTok) gain further popularity and others (e.g. Facebook, Instagram) continue a relentless pivot to video. This will expand the amount of video watched and transition habits—even amongst older demographics.
Prime Video is a vital, freestanding component of Amazon’s sticky and fast-growing Prime subscription bundle—but it is also the key cog in the company’s overall video marketplace strategy
With the Prime subscriber base and Fire TV operating system driving scale, Prime Video and the ad-supported Freevee guarantee traffic, foster competition and maintain quality—ensuring leverage to deal with suppliers
However, the entertainment platform market is fiercely competitive and video is different from socks: content can’t be commoditised, meaning that Amazon must allow third-party brand building
The games industry, with the potential to become the world’s largest media and entertainment sector by revenue, is undergoing profound transformation.
The consolidation of major developers is a response to a revenue model pivoting toward subscription, with direct consequences for those already in the subscription space: film, TV and music.
A technology-led creative medium, with an audience approaching three billion gamers, is seeing its franchises become more valuable and useful than ever.
A year after sub-par results brought a reckoning upon the whole streaming sector, Netflix backed up an affirming Q4 with another positive showing by its core business—allowing attention to shine on its more peripheral growth initiatives
The slower-than-expected rollout of Netflix's attempt to monetise non-paying users—dubbed "paid sharing"—indicates the difficulty of the project, but resistance will be felt even more by weaker competitors. Meanwhile, ARPU figures are very promising for the new ad-supported tier, but scale is assumedly still small
While Netflix continues to optimise its offerings, its competition remains hesitant—they appear no closer to understanding what their streaming products should be and how they should sit within their wider businesses