Service revenue growth was broadly flat this quarter as some unwinding of price increases was compensated by a pickup in roaming revenues.
Vodafone has made some progress on its turnaround plan: it has sold its ailing Spanish unit; is rumoured to be in talks about a deal in Italy; and its German business is (just) back to growth (for now).
We expect muted guidance for 2024 with lower prospective price increases for most, inflated cost bases, and continued consolidation uncertainty.
Ofcom’s plan to ban inflation-linked price rises creates a headache for most operators, but the financial hit will not be felt for years, if then (depending on their replacement).
Ofcom is correct in pointing out some of the drawbacks of the practice, but it will likely be replaced by an alternative tactic that may well end up being worse for consumers.
The unintended consequences could be significant, with a period of uncertainty for operators, low-end plans less appealing to offer, and poor signaling to investors in the sector.
Mobile service revenue growth dipped to 5.6% this quarter as the impact of Q2’s price rises began to wane, and the prospective lower price rises look set to slow growth to 2% by the end of 2024.
Bargain-hunting in the sector continues with the MVNOs still taking the lion’s share of net adds, to the detriment of the MNOs.
EE is offering keenly priced convergence and family plans with its new platform—another challenge for the other MNOs who don’t share the same incentives.
Market revenue growth was robust in Q3 at 1.4%, but heavily supported by price rises whose effect will wane over the next year.
Broadband net adds remained negative, with pay TV and telephony more negative still, mainly thanks to strained consumer finances.
Declining volumes and waning price rise boosts are likely to lead the market into decline next year, with a recovering economy needed to reverse this.
CEO Bob Iger has announced that Disney is now in a "building" phase—indicating that the strategic turnaround is complete—however, upcoming breakeven of streaming products owes much to cuts on programming spend
With the rest of Hulu soon to be acquired, Disney looks as if it is pulling out of India—this will make the company's presence outside of the US even more peripheral
In the UK, Disney+'s advertising-supported tier is now live, however, there are forces at play that limit Disney's ability to execute its tiering strategy as effectively as its biggest streaming competitor
Unable to match Netflix, financially-pressed Hollywood studios are cutting content output and reassessing the DTC model
Price rises are being forced through, however for challengers this is asking a lot from subs, who don’t see an improvement in product or usage
The corporate landscape is fluid—loss-making DTC platforms and revenue-plunging linear channels are candidates for M&A
The metaverse is a radical expansion of online experiences— sparking a host of new safety challenges on harmful content, economic activity, and privacy.
Building safety into the metaverse will take a village: platforms and communities will set policies and moderation. Regulators could struggle to future-proof their tools, especially with decentralised platforms.
AI age verification and moderation is in a race against AI hazards: disinformation, deepfakes and dynamic user content all intensify harms in immersive settings.
Paid sharing and "price optimisation" are returning clear benefits for Netflix, with healthy subscriber growth (+8.8 million, up to 247 million) and an 8% YoY increase in revenue ($8.5 billion) in Q3. However, success of the advertising tier remains slow
In the UK, Netflix is growing revenues and ARPU, and although it is now a challenge to grow the subscriber base, there is a clear and large group of non-paying users that are now being targeted
Netflix's per household engagement is materially higher than its direct competitors. However, this is plateauing and has implications for revenue levers such as advertising impacts and price rises
Market revenue growth surged to 2% in Q2, but entirely-and-more driven by price rises, with underlying trends negative across volumes and ARPU.
Broadband volumes in particular turned sharply negative, largely due to a post-lockdown hangover combining with weak economic conditions.
The outlook is bleak: price rise benefits are set to wane and then reverse, and weak volumes will feed through, with economic recovery needed for a return to sustainable growth.
Social tariffs have provided relief for some at a time of household income squeeze and otherwise unavoidable high inflation-driven telco price increases.
Adoption has risen but remains very low, limiting their effectiveness, and more widespread adoption would expose their shortcomings, with the risk of penalizing low cost operators and significantly increasing prices for non-adopters (by up to 20%).
A better approach might be to recognize that affordability issues are narrower but deeper than current social tariffs can address, with fuller, centrally funded subsidies targeted more narrowly at those most in need.