Market revenue growth accelerated to just under 2% in Q4, with broadband growth holding up despite the ending of most pandemic restrictions.
Backbook pricing pressure should continue to retreat in 2022, and ultrafast speed premia should also bolster ARPU as FTTP roll-outs accelerate.
The price increases due in April will further support growth, with BT in particular to benefit, and all will have to be wary of customer backlash.
TikTok has reached a billion users worldwide just four years after its global launch, much quicker than social media rivals, though its ban in India is a drag on growth.
TikTok’s popularity with under-25s has contributed to a hollowing-out of Meta’s active userbase. During the pandemic, TikTok also expanded its reach among older demographics, cementing its position within the mainstream and posing a further threat to Meta.
TikTok could earn twice as much revenue as Snap in 2022, making it the first app to break out of the mid-league in years, with a huge runway for growth backed up by ByteDance’s remarkable success in China.
BT had a solid Q3, with some mixed results but key metrics all improving, and a (perhaps unsurprisingly) slow post-lockdown recovery the only negative.
The price increase in April should drive dramatic (for BT) revenue and EBITDA acceleration at Consumer, Openreach and BT as a whole, and easily cover pressures within BT’s own cost base.
Longer-term growth is dependent on FTTP performance, which continues to look promising with improving metrics across the board in the quarter, and no news is good news in terms of ISPs signing with competitor networks.
Market revenue growth improved to -2%, after the sport-affected -6% last quarter, but was still low by historic standards.
Backbook pricing pressure is still hitting the market, and this will not improve until 2021 at the earliest.
Demand however looks strong; broadband adoption has re-accelerated, and the early signs of ultrafast adoption are encouraging.
Virgin Media’s lockdown subscriber surge continued into Q3, as working-from-home highlights the importance of the faster speeds its network can offer.
ARPU is more challenged, and will get worse next quarter given its forgone price rise, but price rises are back in fashion in the industry, so this problem is likely to prove temporary.
Openreach’s full fibre remains a medium-term threat, but the company is rightly taking advantage while its network superiority remains, with momentum firmly in its favour for now.
BT’s revenue growth remained very suppressed in the September quarter at -7%, with a limited COVID-19 recovery chocked off by seasonal roaming effects and regulator-inspired pricing forbearance.
EBITDA growth did improve to -3% from -7% last quarter, mainly due to short-term cost actions and the early impact of its longer-term cost program, and the company has upgraded its short- and longer-term EBITDA targets.
The company is also optimistic on a longer-term return to underlying revenue growth, helped by a return to regular existing customer price increases and the impact of full fibre, but not until 2023, with a few bumps in the road before then.
ByteDance is rushing to sell a 20% stake in TikTok Global to Oracle and Walmart at an enterprise value of $60 billion. TikTok otherwise faces a ban in the US on 12 November, subject to legal challenges.
The sale hinges on ByteDance obtaining approval from China to export TikTok’s core technologies. China updated its export control rules to include algorithms (and AI), entrenching a tech cold war with the West.
TikTok has confounded regulatory woes in India and the US, and renewed competition from US tech, to post dizzying user growth in every major internet region where it is available, casting off its image as a niche youth product and entering the mainstream.
BT’s June quarter results were predictably hit by COVID-19, with revenue and EBITDA dropping by 7%, but less predictably most of the hit was on mobile and business customer revenue, with consumer fixed resilient despite the suspension of sport.
BT’s full year guidance is cautious, with a 7% EBITDA decline at the mid-point, with much of this caution around further hits to its business revenue as government support is withdrawn.
BT’s full year guidance is cautious, with a 7% EBITDA decline at the mid-point, with much of this caution around further hits to its business revenue as government support is withdrawn.
Microsoft hopes to buy TikTok from Chinese owner ByteDance before President Trump’s Executive Order halts transactions with the company in mid-September. Twitter is now in the game, but is unlikely to prevail
Worth tens of billions, TikTok would be the biggest acquisition in Microsoft’s history. This hot new digital platform has hundreds of millions of users and an ad business that could overtake Snapchat’s. Extracting the technology from ByteDance may take years
Selling TikTok to shake off anti-Chinese scrutiny would signal ByteDance’s abrupt exit from the digital world stage with a fabulous return on its investment, while letting TikTok users continue to enjoy the service. However, losing TikTok sinks the global growth story that ByteDance was lining up for its anticipated IPO
Premium sports subscriptions are the primary sector weakness in the current crisis, and they look set to drive fixed operator revenues down 10% next quarter and Sky’s EBITDA down by 60%.
As lockdown eases, latent broadband demand can be more easily sated, and sports subscriptions will bounce back from the September quarter. A surge in working-from-home is likely to increase both the quantity and quality of home broadband demand, with ‘failover’ mobile backup also likely to be of greater interest.
Openreach will benefit from accelerated demand for full fibre, converged operators will be best-placed to offer mobile backup for broadband, and operators with a strong corporate presence will most easily target demand for home-working products.