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3G Datacards

3G datacards slot into laptops to provide Internet connectivity when on the move. They make good use of the current patchy 3G networks: demand is likely to be concentrated in areas that are currently covered, while GPRS is a good back-up outside these areas and the ‘bursty’ nature of their usage does not put an unsustainable load on the 3G networks. However, they are far more expensive and much slower than fixed line broadband, and they are likely to remain so for the foreseeable future, leaving their appeal as a ‘last resort’ rather than a genuine alternative.

The resulting outlook for C&W UK’s performance in the short term is uncomfortable

Longer term, the strategy looks feasible, but better implemented under private ownership

Bulldog’s strategy is unchanged and remains dubious

Mobile TV

Mobile TV is being hailed as the next killer consumer mobile data application, and is already credited with being the most popular 3G service where it is offered.

This report examines recent developments in Local Loop Unbundling (LLU) in the UK and their implications for market structure and BT’s revenue from residential customers.

 

 

Ofcom, BT and the industry are getting closer to completing the Telecoms Strategic Review (TSR), currently in its Phase 3, and scheduled to complete in the Autumn. Ofcom's proposals and the supportive measures announced by BT offer some good news for virtually all players in the UK market, although clearly such judgements depend on what was expected prior to these announcements. We have always considered it unlikely that Ofcom would choose the option of investigating BT and possibly making a referral to the Competition Commission, which could have led to the break-up of BT. However the reaction of the financial markets suggests that at least some City analysts considered that BT has secured a major win by avoiding this outcome.

Strong growth in both online and mobile music revenues was not enough to compensate for the erosion of the core CD market

France has become the largest market for broadband in Europe (7.7 million connections at the end of Q1 2005) as a result of the aggressive price competition unleashed by local loop unbundling (LLU) since 2002. In addition, ADSL2+ line speeds have become standard in densely populated areas (where customers are within 2 kilometres of the exchange).

Digital TV growth trends following the record surge of Freeview homes in December 2005;

Financial assessment of Sky’s broadband/telephony strategy following the acquisition of Easynet;

ITV1 audience and advertising revenue prospects for 2006 in the wake of more than a 10% decline in commercial viewing share in 2005.

Broadband growth has been very strong in the UK, with 7 million businesses and households connecting to the Internet via a broadband cable or DSL connection at the end of Q1 2005. Driven by rapid migration of dial-up Internet users to broadband, we expect high levels of net adds to continue in 2005 and 2006, before declining steeply as the market approaches saturation.

As unbundlers in France increasingly look to migrate their customers from shared to full access – principally to sever the underlying telephony customer relationship with the incumbent and reduce churn – Fastweb in Italy has decided to go in the opposite direction.

In January this year, Ofcom published its eagerly-awaited consultation document, “Spectrum Framework Review: Implementation Plan”, containing its plans for the release of new mobile spectrum and the liberalisation of existing mobile spectrum. This report reviews the implications of Ofcom's hesitant moves towards spectrum liberalisation and the vast amount of new mobile spectrum that will be released onto the market.

We find that the hype is overblown, with low underlying consumer interest and the potential for a mass market service still several years away due to 3G actually being an inappropriate delivery mechanism.

Handset manufacturers are likely to be the only significant winners from mobile TV, able to keep top-end handset prices high with yet another seldom-used feature.

 

Vodafone's strategic direction appears little altered since its change of CEO earlier this year. In this report we look at the company’s overall global positioning and prospects.

Comparisons between the French and UK broadband market are thought-provoking. In France there will be 3 million DSL connections and 210,000 unbundled lines by the end of 2003; in the UK in October this year there were 1.5 million DSL connections and just 7,800 unbundled lines. In the first of two reports we look at how local loop unbundling (LLU) in France is changing the market outlook for incumbent and altnets alike.

BSkyB Targets

BSkyB’s quarterly results will be delivered on Friday 14th November. Prior to these new figures, this report gives our views on the attainability of BSkyB’s medium term targets.