ITV's total external revenue rose 4% year-on-year in Q1 (to £756 million), although a material drop in internal Studios sales (down by £41 million) meant a decline in total group revenue (-1% to £875 million). Ad revenue was down 2% and will face tough men's Euros comparisons for the next two quarters 

Even with continuing online growth, ITV's overall viewing continues to decline. However, ITVX usage is displaying favourable characteristics that could foretell greater resilience and volume

Further, although the levels of viewing on the ad-tiers of the major SVOD services is analogous to ITVX, the difference in how well that viewing is monetised is stark

VMO2 reported solid financials in Q1, with revenue and EBITDA growth both improving and both (just) ahead of full year guidance.

Subscriber momentum however was poor across fixed and mobile, despite customer service improving, with broadband in particular likely to get worse as network buildout slows.

Meeting full year guidance is still achievable, but will likely require a significant altnet slowdown sooner rather than later in the year.

The French league and DAZN have come to an agreement to end their media rights contract after one season, with the league now having had four main broadcast partners in five years.

DAZN claims the league failed to protect its ‘exclusivity’, resulting in high piracy. Ligue 1 blames poor execution.

Without a main broadcast partner for next season, Ligue 1 is exploring the idea of creating its own direct-to-consumer service.

Disney continued to grow profitability across its three segments, even as streaming subs and revenue remain stagnant. Stoked by Trump-uncertainty, headwinds could have ramifications for leadership succession planning

Challenges to Disney+ engagement may not yet be impacting subscriptions but it will compromise the fame of core IP assets and therefore monetisation opportunities

Green shoots are finally emerging from Disney's games strategy with Disney+ entering Fortnite

Service revenue growth remained firmly negative at -1.0% in spite of inflation of +2.1%, as competition remains intense and pricing power weak.

Operators are guiding to a 2025 EBITDA performance that is broadly in-line with, or weaker than, their 2024 performance, with SFR choosing to abstain from guidance this year.

In-market consolidation cries are getting louder, with France, Italy and Germany the most obvious candidates.

Netflix beat its own Q1 revenue and profit forecasts but an uneven outlook means that its previous 2025 projections (12-14% revenue growth with a 29% margin) remain relevant. The end of reporting of subscription numbers and ARPU means that there is less visibility on the success of advertising and its regions

UK programming is now the most efficient original content on Netflix—with a tough outlook for production, this is validation of the quality of the product produced in this country

The call for a streaming levy was badly timed with little interrogation of any consequences. Further, it fails to directly address a major problem: the declining consumption of British programming  

UEFA and Relevent, a newly appointed media rights sales partner, are already surveying the rights market for the next cycle starting in 2027.

With minimal competitive tension in major European markets, incumbent broadcasters are unlikely to increase their bids.

Relevent will, however, try to leverage increased US appetite for soccer to lure a streamer into a global deal.

Looking to 2030, we forecast that broadcaster viewing will continue to decline, driven by a drop in live viewing. Non-live is increasing but will be unable to make up for the total broadcaster shortfall.

Change is demarcated by age: while under-35s will watch more YouTube on the TV, with SVOD steady, the inverse will occur for over-35s.

The heavy-watching over-65s remain mostly insulated from change for now, however, those aged 35-54 are currently undergoing the biggest behavioural shift: beyond 2030 they will eventually carry their modern habits into their time-rich retirements.

2024 was the first year in history in which the network operators lost contract subscribers. MVNOs added 1.7m.

In-contract price increases are dominating revenue trends, with a somewhat flatlining outlook on an underlying basis but boosted by accounting technicalities.

We expect the Vodafone3 merger to close on 1 of May which has implications for buyout timing and will prompt higher capex, some early network upsides, and big strategic decisions for both Vodafone3 and BT/EE.

Most regulations within the TAR26 condoc were continuations of the previous pro-investment regulations, albeit with little progress made on copper withdrawal, no extra help for the struggling altnets and a number of unexpected twists at the margin. 

Within the detail, the most significant hit is the return of cost-based price controls to some leased line charges, and across all of the proposed changes, Openreach has on balance fared worse than retail ISPs, albeit at a scale that is manageable within the BT Group.

Ofcom showed no inclination to offer any extra help to the struggling altnet industry, regarding its inefficiencies as being its own (and its investors’) problem, with consolidation the only sensible path forward for most.