Enders Analysis today published a major report on the digital music sector, as part of its long term commitment to independent music industry analysis and research.

The music industry’s extraordinary recovery and digital transformation over the past 15 years has resulted in the establishment of a dynamic and competitive sector that provides a broad range of services to labels and artists in distributing recorded music.

This report explains that digital technologies have profoundly changed the music industry, and that the emergence of a large number of digital-first service providers (ALSPs) in a crowded and dynamic marketplace provides artists and labels with a myriad of choices. Those choices exist through a wide spectrum of offerings from many suppliers to meet the diverse needs of artists, labels and end-consumers. From “pipes only” products that provide an easy and direct path to access the large network of digital service providers (DSPs), through to broader service offerings, with matching breadth of service fees. Our analysis of the market shows high levels of competition, as well as innovation, making it easy and routine for artists and labels to switch providers to meet their needs.

Netflix revenue grew 17% YoY in Q3, although operating income was well below expectations (-10%), hit by a $619 million tax expense in Brazil. Once again improvement in advertising revenues was noted but without any substantial detail.

UK advertising tier growth is primarily being driven by movement from more expensive ad-free tiers. This has challenged ARPU: advertising revenue does not appear to be balancing the loss from subscriptions.

With ownership of Warner Bros. Discovery likely to change, management did not specifically rule out M&A. However, it is not clear whether Netflix would be best served by the IP such a purchase would provide.

Disney+’s content deals with FTA operators in the UK, Germany and Spain have been characterised by the company as a lever to boost engagement from its older audiences but also younger viewers increasingly disconnected from broadcasters

Greater volumes of proven local programming on Disney+ can only be helpful—the divergent viewing tastes of Germany and Spain are case studies in the regional specificities of content demand

Further, a greater variety of content and release patterns will challenge current Disney+ viewing behaviours and could create greater urgency around usage

Although original programming is now cutting through—a validation of expansion in output—licensed content remains the backbone of Prime Video’s offering, c.80% of all viewing since March 2024.

Viewership of UK originals fluctuates significantly with reliance on standout titles, whereas US content, including high-volume dramas, maintains a steady audience.

Football coverage has been a draw for viewers: the Premier League, now lost, brought in older, male audiences. After an underwhelming initial phase of the last Champions League, Prime Video’s top pick of fixtures proved beneficial in the knockout round.

Revenue growth in mature markets is now price-driven and therefore lumpier. While the US leans on bundling, European scale requires wholesale distribution with pay-TV incumbents. Fledgling streamer to streamer/PSB deals are more of a distribution nudge than a step towards the US model.

Profit momentum is real but fragile: H2 content/sports ramps will test margins; the Versant/Discovery Global carve-outs are about protecting multiples while ring-fencing legacy decline.

Engagement is the key battleground: live sport is increasingly important although streamers remain reticent on rights spending. While sport boosts acquisition and ad reach, ROI hinges on price discipline and shoulder programming. Europe remains a tougher nut to crack.
 

Disney’s streaming business continues to grow meaningfully, now outpacing the somewhat predictable decline of its linear operation. Studios is always a highwire act, but it is currently the source of most of Disney’s uncertainty.

With subscription numbers quite flat and engagement likely subdued, in the US Disney is hoping that product improvements and sport will invigorate the relationship that users have with its services.

In the UK, the Disney+ and ITVX content swap arrangement is off to a slow start.

Prime Video UK viewing has increased by 30% year-on-year. Although this growth is from a smaller base than its main rivals, it now matches Disney+ in total engagement.

Viewing behaviour now reflects a service that is more than just an add-on: those who use it alongside Netflix do so for its breadth, particularly in film, whilst non-Netflix viewers are drawn to its major UK hits and football coverage.

Supplementing consistent viewing to football and scripted box sets, its ability to attract mass audiences to its hit original shows now rivals some broadcasters.

Netflix improved on its Q2 revenue and profit forecasts, driven by successful implementation of price rises and USD weakness. There continues to be little substantive information offered about the advertising business

Most of Netflix’s engagement growth is derived from its existing heavy users. Lighter users, who are more susceptible to churn, appear to be most under pressure from YouTube

In the UK, new Netflix original content no longer appears to be driving new subscriptions. This means it can be better used to shape engagement in a way that optimises monetisation

After four failed broadcast licence deals over five years, France’s top football league will launch its own subscription service in August.

In the short-term, consumer take up will critically depend on bundling arrangements with third-party platforms.

Longer-term, the league will need to establish lasting partnerships. Outdated competition rules are an obstacle, but the Dutch model is worth considering.

This report tracks Netflix’s original content output, which declined in 2024: docuseries and stand-up comedy were the only genres that grew in volume

We provide an overview of what programming is working, by overlaying Netflix’s ‘mood tag’ and genre metadata onto global and UK viewing 

We analyse Netflix’s approach to film and, in particular, the difference in output and success of more and less expensive features