Carphone Warehouse’s distribution business felt the recessionary chill for the first time in the December quarter, but its like-for-like organic growth of -1% was still far better than other consumer electronics retailers have fared

The market outlook is unfortunately still worsening. While we still expect Carphone Warehouse to outperform its competitors, its results are likely to get worse before they get better

In fixed line, net broadband additions were reasonable at TalkTalk but negative again at AOL. We are sceptical of the prospects for subscriber growth at AOL, and earlier guidance of 200-250k broadband net adds for the year to March now looks unlikely to be met

Ending a simmering commercial dispute, Vivendi’s Canal+ has agreed to distribute its packages to France Télécom’s Orange TV satellite customers, allowing Orange to relaunch its DTH platform (targeting 4 million customers off the DSL TV footprint) after its dismal ‘do-it-alone’ first six months

Canal+ recruitments will benefit from the resumption of active marketing for its packages over Orange TV platforms, after a poor year for subscriber growth

Canal+ catch-up TV will now be available to all Orange Canal+ DSL TV subscribers, as it is to those on Free, where it is very popular, plus Orange satellite subscribers, thus giving Orange back the leadership position on IPTV in France

This is the third, after France and The Netherlands, of our reports on NGA in the continent. Deutsche Telekom’s NGA extends fibre to the cabinet, with VDSL for the last mile, to cover 25% of the country’s 37 million homes by end 2008. In our view, DTAG’s strategic rationale on NGA is to develop the IPTV proposition to better counter the competitive challenge on broadband and telephony, in core urban areas, of a resurgent cable. DTAG has already lost considerable double play market share to the altnets, and market positioning is key given the sizeable upside left in the German broadband market

In the attached report, we present an analysis of UK handset sales over the online channel, using data sourced from Mobileshop.com, an online comparison handset sales site. Mobileshop.com presents offers from all major online mobile shops, including those from the operators and the major independent retailers, covering handsets, datacards and SIM-only offerings, across prepay and contract connections. In this, our first report, we have focused on issues relating to the market structure and broad market share figures, and our future quarterly updates will focus more on emerging trends

This report on next generation access in The Netherlands is the second, after France, of our reports on NGA in the continent. KPN’s NGA was initially focused on FTTC+VDSL deployment, to cover 15% of the country’s 6 million homes by end 2009. Since May 2008, KPN has moved aggressively on FTTH, establishing a joint venture with Reggefiber, the country’s leading local ‘open’ network operator. Regulatory approval is pending for the end of 2008. The JV’s coverage could eventually reach 70% of homes, making The Netherlands the leading market for FTTH in Europe.

On Monday 15th December, Virgin Media (VMed) announced the launch of its 50 Mbit/s ‘XXL’ broadband service, implemented over the existing cable network using the DOCSIS3 standard. This note looks at the details of the offer and the implications for VMed, other ISPs and the residential telecoms market as a whole

This report on France kicks off a series of reports on Next Generation Access on the continent, also covering Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden, and concluding with a summary. Each country report is focused on the strategic rationale for NGA, and covers the incumbent's principal competitors, the IPTV opportunity, NGA plans or achievements, and the regulatory agenda. For France, our principal conclusion is that plans for NGA respond mainly to a strategic imperative to upgrade IPTV services to HD and multiple feed, with limited direct uplift to ARPU, making these plans generally cautious, tactical and highly focused on IPTV niche markets

UK broadband net additions in Q3 2008 fell sequentially, the first time this has happened in a third quarter. Q3 net adds almost halved year-on-year to 320,000

Carphone Warehouse’s distribution side was very strong in revenue terms in the September quarter, with an underlying (ex-currency) growth of 11%

The company is right to be cautious about the Christmas trading environment, although we believe that it will continue to do well in relative terms at least, and even has a fighting chance of hitting the distribution revenue guidance made back in April

Fixed line revenue growth was hit by churn and spin down at AOL UK, and churn in the non-broadband base. Fixed line EBITDA grew encouragingly as cost savings from LLU kicked in, but overall financial performance was marred by the cost of free laptop and retention offers at AOL UK

European mobile revenue growth has declined again, from 1.4% to 0.5%, despite favourable movements in regulatory factors, which imply an underlying drop in growth of about 2 percentage points