Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth improved by 1.1ppts to -8.5% in the March quarter, but this was all driven by a waning regulatory impact, with underlying growth nudging down slightly

The company’s service revenue growth improved a fraction more than its competitors, but it has barely narrowed the substantial gap, and contract net adds share fell after three consecutive quarters of improvement

Hopes for a recovery in underlying growth still centre on M&A, with EC decisions due in June, and on the Project Spring investment paying off, but this is unlikely to result in improved financial metrics for a year at least

Improving volume trends and ARPU drove Virgin Media’s cable revenue growth to improve from 3.0% to 3.6%, helped by a firm price increase implemented during the quarter

Underlying OCF growth improved more dramatically, from -1% to +6%, with synergy benefits, lower marketing costs and lower premium channel cost growth some of the main drivers

While volume growth is still modest, solid ARPU growth and cost control should allow continued strong OCF growth through the rest of the year

At its f8 developer conference, under the slogan “Build, Grow, Monetise”, Facebook rolled out a slew of new policies and initiatives designed to boost its appeal amongst users, app developers and advertisers

In its drive to encourage developers to build more apps that support the social network, Facebook is attempting to position itself as a “cross-platform platform” with 1 billion+ users that sits on top of iOS, Android and other mobile operating systems

Key announcements included App Links, an open source solution enabling linking across apps, which may drive additional usage, and Facebook Audience Network, an app ad network rolling out this year, which should drive additional margin and could challenge Google AdSense

Facebook has successfully transitioned its business to mobile, with the number of mobile users now exceeding those on PC, and mobile newsfeed ads accounting for nearly all revenue growth and over half of total revenue, now on a $10 billion annual run-rate

North America and Europe continue to account for the vast majority of revenue and revenue growth, despite flat audience penetration in both regions, as increasing mobile consumption and advertiser take-up have driven sharp increases in ARPU, particularly in the US

Despite tougher comparables and declining desktop revenue going forward, the rapid ramp up in mobile ad revenue, plus initiatives such as video ads, ads on Instagram and planned mobile ad network, should deliver strong growth through 2014 and into 2015

The boom in mobile device sales accelerated in 2013, with more than four times as many smartphones and tablets as PCs shipped in the UK: smartphones accounted for three quarters of mobile phone sales, and shipments of tablets surpassed PC sales, which fell sharply

By 2020, we forecast that smartphone penetration will rise from two thirds of the population to over 80%, and the number of tablet users will exceed 60%, outstripping the PC internet audience, which we expect to shrink. We now predict that the majority of internet usage will go to mobile devices this year and three quarters by 2020

Mobile is well on its way to becoming the predominant access platform in the UK, as in the US, and most, if not all, future growth in commercial internet revenues will be driven by mobile devices

European mobile service revenue growth again disappointed in Q4, dropping slightly from -8.9% to -9.1%, with underlying revenue growth dropping a little further from -6.0% to -6.3%, again reaching a record low

There had been hopes that improved GDP growth would drive a volume rebound, that price declines would start to annualise out, and that declining out-of-bundle usage would wane in its impact as this usage declined. In the event, ongoing price competition from smaller operators, MVNOs and quad play offerings, combined with surging use of OTT communications platforms, have dominated trends

In the medium term, the development of 4G and Vodafone’s Project Spring may bring some much needed network differentiation back to the market, allowing pricing power to return to the larger operators. However, it will be 2015-2016 before these factors come into play: in the short term, the main source of optimism is consolidation

Strong growth in UK sales of mobile devices in 2013, with tablet shipments overtaking declining PC sales, pushed smartphone and tablet penetration up to about 63% and 35% respectively, in line with our forecasts.

We estimate that mobile devices now account for 50% of time spent online in the UK, the lion’s share via apps, reaching this milestone sooner than expected. Mobile internet usage looks set for further growth in 2014 and beyond, with PC-based consumption flattening.

After a slow start mobile monetisation is also rising fast, with UK advertising and e-commerce to mobile devices accelerating and closing the gap with that on the PC. We expect much, if not all, future growth in commercial internet revenues to be driven by mobile devices.

UK mobile market service revenue growth improved on both a reported and underlying basis by 1.2ppts in Q4, a very welcome result after six consecutive quarters of declining underlying growth. Reported revenue is still in decline, at -1.6%, but it is the most modest decline among larger European countries, and compares to -5.0% in early 2013 EE is still leading in 4G coverage and performance, with around twice the coverage of its nearest rivals of basic 4G, double speed 4G now covering around 30% of the population, and plans for quadruple speed 4G to launch in 2014. Vodafone may prove the biggest network challenger going forward, with plans to increase capex as part of its Project Spring initiative Maintaining (or increasing) the current level of pricing is key to the industry returning to revenue growth in 2014. We would note that the smallest operator, H3G, is fairly unlikely to return to being a price discounter and put pressure on market prices, leaving the onus on the ‘big 3’ to stay disciplined, with a small but significant risk from SIM-only MVNO offers gaining more traction

Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 4 March 2014. The event featured talks by 13 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. This report provides edited transcripts of the talks given by six of those speakers: Sir Martin Sorrell, WPP; Gavin Patterson, BT; Andrew Griffith, BSkyB; Thomas Rabe, Bertelsmann; David Dyson, Three UK; David Abraham, Channel 4

In an audacious move to minimise the risk of mobile social disruption, Facebook is to acquire leading messaging app Whatsapp for up to $19 billion, or $42 per user, or 11% of Facebook’s current market cap

Messaging platforms are becoming the new social media, particularly for younger demographics, and while Facebook/WhatsApp will be huge in mobile, other services could still side-step into Facebook’s territory

The price for WhatsApp may be justifiable to counter the threat, but Facebook has only bought one of many, and paying a full price may encourage the others; expensively buying every competitor does not feel like a long-term strategy