The US music publishing market, worth $2.2 billion in 2013, is poised for moderate CAGR of 2.5% in the period 2014-17, thanks to performance royalty growth from broadcast and new media uses, offsetting flat mechanicals as the physical-to-digital transition in recorded music continues to place pressure on this revenue line

ASCAP and BMI, the performance rights organisations, have been engaged in an intense period of litigation against Pandora, the popular ad-supported streaming service with around 80 million users, in which Pandora has prevailed

ASCAP and BMI have also sought to loosen the consent decree regime in place since 1941 and overseen by the Department of Justice in order to enable "market-driven" rates, but this effort also looks set to fail in light of the firm opposition of all classes of licensees

Radio’s transition from analogue to digital has been slow, with no switchover date yet in sight 16 years after Digital Audio Broadcasting’s (DAB) commercial launch

Recent initiatives intended to boost DAB are welcome, but most will not be transformatory as they offer little new to the consumer

However, the award of the second national commercial multiplex to Sound Digital with the launch of new, compelling content in 2016 could finally give radio listeners the reason to upgrade and make a case for switchover

YouTube remains the dominant online video site globally, although competition for the viewer is growing from OTT video and other popular apps. Reach and consumption appear to be slowing in the US and the UK, but YouTube reports strong growth in global watch time as smartphone adoption proceeds

The number and variety of MCNs on YouTube continues to grow. Music video MCN Vevo has so far been the largest single presence on YouTube, but it is being overtaken by the combined Disney/Maker Studios MCN

In contrast to the aggregator MCNs with tens of thousands of channels, studio MCNs have much smaller network sizes and a higher share of owned channels. Their focus on content curation and creation has allowed some to build global audiences of repeat viewers, a unique strength and of significant appeal for advertisers

2014 has been a good year for total advertising, which we forecast to grow by 5.5% across the year; display advertising spend is also forecast to grow by over 6% year-on-year. This is largely thanks to a positive economic backdrop, where we have seen a significant rise in consumer expenditure over the last two years

Online advertising spend has been the biggest recipient of growing ad spend, with 20+% growth last year, this year and next. This has mostly been to the detriment of print revenues, where online classified search solutions, amongst other factors like declining circulation, have disrupted print marketplaces

Video has been the largest growth area in internet advertising as online video consumption increases. Up to now online spend has largely been accretive to TV budgets but we are starting to see some advertisers switch to online video spend. However we do not expect TV to suffer in the same way as press

Investment in YouTube multi-channel networks (MCNs) has accelerated this year and now exceeds $1.65 billion, triple the aggregate value invested to 2013. This step-up is being driven primarily by traditional media companies

Due to the growth of the overall online video sector, we expect to see continued demand for MCNs, as further opportunities for vertical, geographical and functional consolidation exist

While acquisition prices of close to $1 billion (incl. earn-outs) are high, valuation comparables seem relatively consistent and modest in comparison to other media/tech deals. Further, we see MCN investments as part of a wider shift as media companies extend their core business to digital

After a relatively benign year in 2013 for UK recorded music thanks to a small pickup in trade revenues, we project a 5% decline in 2014, with digital music purchasing now falling as consumers shift to ad-supported and subscription access services, while CD sales continue to drop at a double-digit pace each year.

The UK reached a new milestone at the end of 2013 surpassing 1.3 million paying subscribers, a large number of non-paying 'hard bundled' subscribers on Orange/Deezer and Vodafone/Spotify 4G plans, plus several million Spotify freemium and Spotify Free 'smart radio' users.

We project steady expenditure on recorded music as a whole in the period to 2017 from consumers and advertisers at £1.1 billion annually, but anticipate the loss of £90 million in trade revenues in the shift to access due to the labels' lower revenue-share.

UK radio listening remains very healthy, with the plethora of internet radio and music streaming services now available barely affecting average listening time which has decreased by only 6% (11 minutes per day) since 2008

Commercial radio has maintained a consistent 43% share over this period, but its audience is getting older, as those that grew up with it remain loyal, and the population itself gets older. In a stable and benign market, the three major players of Bauer Media, Global Radio and UTV Media are focussed on increasing audiences, multi-platform propositions and digital opportunities

DAB growth remains slow, although the recently advertised national commercial multiplex may provide the impetus DAB badly needs, as it will allow for the launch of up to 11 national digital stations. Bauer, UTV and Arqiva have announced a new consortium to apply for the licence, and we believe Global is also looking to form a consortium

US recorded music retail sales fell 5% in 2013 to $5.5 billion on a bruising 17% decline in physical sales and a sharp slow-down in digital growth

DTO retail sales slipped for the first time in 2013, a trend that continued in Q1 2014. On a brighter note, the leap from 3.4 to 6.1 million subscribers makes the US the top market for the format

At the wholesale level, the fall in revenues from B2C sales was entirely offset by the rise in B2B revenues from ad-supported music where usage is booming – in 2013, B2B contributed 16% of wholesale revenues of $4.5 billion

Japan’s RIAJ reported a 15% decline in trade revenues in 2013 on the 13% decline in CD and music video sales, still representing 87% of trade revenues

Digital trade revenues fell 23% on collapsing mobile sales; internet DTO revenues were up 24% and subscription revenues trebled to $31 million

UMG, WMG and even Sony each have limited exposure to Japan, where domestic labels dominate. Avex and other publishers exploit J-pop through 360 degree contracts with acts and enjoy robust concert and merchandising revenues

Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 4 March 2014. The event featured talks by 13 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. This report provides edited transcripts of the talks given by six of those speakers: Sir Martin Sorrell, WPP; Gavin Patterson, BT; Andrew Griffith, BSkyB; Thomas Rabe, Bertelsmann; David Dyson, Three UK; David Abraham, Channel 4