Claire Enders set out the implications of a Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum for the media available in Scotland. She critically examines the SNP's plans for a Scottish media, and argues that Scotland's small population would make an independent media hard to sustain. When the effect of a nationalist 'nation-building' project is factored in too, the overall results would be serious costs to the quality of democracy Scots enjoy.

The UK’s love affair with mobile devices continued in Q1 2014, with four times as many smartphones and tablets as PCs shipped during the quarter. Smartphones now account for three quarters of mobile phone sales, and shipments of tablets exceed sales of PCs, though the latter improved during the quarter

The device mix for internet access is changing rapidly: more people now have a smartphone than have a laptop in the home, though the overall PC audience (including desktop) is still larger. For many people, smartphones are becoming the core device to get online, and almost half of all households have a tablet

Commercial revenues derived from mobile devices still trail their share of internet usage but the gap is closing: in Q1, smartphones and tablets generated a third of e-retail sales, while mobile ads represented a fifth of internet search and display advertising

Amazon has announced a new smartphone, the Fire Phone – a premium-priced device with some unique features and solid hardware; only available in the US at first, its high price and small number of apps limit its appeal

Although initial sales are likely to be low and mainly confined to Amazon Prime members, in the short term the purpose of Fire Phone is simple: to drive increased mobile sales of everything Amazon sells

In the longer term, Amazon needs to avoid being locked out of digital media purchasing on smartphones, increasingly the primary connected device – this is a first, although insufficient, step in that direction

Strong growth in the UK economy has created a very positive short term outlook for display advertising, with TV Net Advertising Revenues (NAR) expected to increase by 5% in 2014.

That bright prospect is nonetheless overshadowed by online video advertising, where 2014 is expected to add almost £200 million to the estimated £300 million spent in 2013. YouTube is leading the way, but the TV broadcasters also stand to benefit.

All the indicators point to yet more rapid growth in online video advertising over the next three to five years. So far it has had little apparent impact on TV NAR, but this should change from 2015 as TV and online video become more closely meshed.

The media day

14 May 2014

We have estimated the breakdown of the media day for UK adults (16+) using standard industry sources. The charts in the attached PDF present a picture of overall time spent with different media in the UK

Over the last 10-15 years the digitisation of content, coupled with internet connectivity and device proliferation, particularly recently with smartphones (now at 63% penetration) and tablets (35%), have given individuals far more ways and means to consume media and communicate with each other

However we also note that 'traditional' media has held steady and still accounts for 6 hours and 50 minutes of daily media time. We have not yet arrived in a post-print, post-TV world, rather a multi-layered one where consumers access media from a wide variety of sources and devices.

At its f8 developer conference, under the slogan “Build, Grow, Monetise”, Facebook rolled out a slew of new policies and initiatives designed to boost its appeal amongst users, app developers and advertisers

In its drive to encourage developers to build more apps that support the social network, Facebook is attempting to position itself as a “cross-platform platform” with 1 billion+ users that sits on top of iOS, Android and other mobile operating systems

Key announcements included App Links, an open source solution enabling linking across apps, which may drive additional usage, and Facebook Audience Network, an app ad network rolling out this year, which should drive additional margin and could challenge Google AdSense

Facebook has successfully transitioned its business to mobile, with the number of mobile users now exceeding those on PC, and mobile newsfeed ads accounting for nearly all revenue growth and over half of total revenue, now on a $10 billion annual run-rate

North America and Europe continue to account for the vast majority of revenue and revenue growth, despite flat audience penetration in both regions, as increasing mobile consumption and advertiser take-up have driven sharp increases in ARPU, particularly in the US

Despite tougher comparables and declining desktop revenue going forward, the rapid ramp up in mobile ad revenue, plus initiatives such as video ads, ads on Instagram and planned mobile ad network, should deliver strong growth through 2014 and into 2015

The boom in mobile device sales accelerated in 2013, with more than four times as many smartphones and tablets as PCs shipped in the UK: smartphones accounted for three quarters of mobile phone sales, and shipments of tablets surpassed PC sales, which fell sharply

By 2020, we forecast that smartphone penetration will rise from two thirds of the population to over 80%, and the number of tablet users will exceed 60%, outstripping the PC internet audience, which we expect to shrink. We now predict that the majority of internet usage will go to mobile devices this year and three quarters by 2020

Mobile is well on its way to becoming the predominant access platform in the UK, as in the US, and most, if not all, future growth in commercial internet revenues will be driven by mobile devices

Netflix is making steady progress with the global expansion of its streaming business, which now makes up 20% of total revenues, but is still far short of its long term vision of 70-80% share

Building a large presence in Europe is vital to long term success. The signs are that Netflix is steadily growing its UK and Ireland base, and performing even more strongly in the Nordics and possibly also in the Netherlands

We are reaching the most critical point of Netflix’s European journey, as it contemplates entry into the key markets of France and Germany. Germany looks the more obvious first choice, with rumours of a September launch, but ideally Netflix will want an autumn launch in France too, if it can handle the extra strain on budgets

Amazon has entered the increasingly crowded digital entertainment TV device marketplace, one which could be strategically more important for the ecommerce giant than tech rivals Apple and Google

The frictionless integration of entertainment and ecommerce on TV represents a bigger consumer milestone than competitor services are offering, and Amazon’s brand has huge appeal, though at present it has less market traction for streaming than it does for other products

Content owners and broadcasters remain the real TV gatekeepers, with integration of TV and digital a service-level pipe dream for now, and so Amazon will likely have to accept being one of many, rather than the runaway winner as it is in books