The General Election in May 2015 looks to be one of the most unpredictable in living memory. A hung parliament seems the most likely outcome, but the likely government after May is still unclear. Whereas in previous elections there were at most three swings that mattered, between the Lib Dems, Labour and the Conservatives, in this one there are arguably 10 or 11. There has been a huge increase in complexity, which, along with the virtually neck-and-neck polls, is what makes the outcome so much harder to predict.

In this report, we describe the context of this election, analyse the prospects for each party, and illustrate three possible outcomes of the election, detailing what would be necessary for each of them to occur, and what sort of government each of them would lead to.

The shift to mobile continues, with the smartphone replacing the laptop as the device with the most users, although the rate of tablet adoption has slowed somewhat.

This shift will change the online revenue mix, with mobile being better suited to content, native and video advertising than traditional display and search. Mobile devices also now account for the majority of visits to retail sites, and more than a third of spend online.

We see large age-based differences across all internet activities, but the split is particularly significant for smartphone adoption and usage, with only a quarter of over-55s using smartphones, and only a third of those reporting downloading apps.

The Sky Deutschland platform, which will fall under BSkyB’s control by mid-November, continues to post strong subscriber growth, thanks to steady gross additions and declining churn

However, average revenue per user remains flat year-on-year, and declined sequentially for the first time in over four years, raising questions about Sky’s capacity to sustain the recent pace of total revenue growth

On current trends, cash flow break-even will not happen before the last quarter of calendar 2016, months before the possible price hike from a new domestic football rights auction. Meanwhile, deployment of Sky’s connected TV services appears to be keeping OTT competitors at bay

In the last few days we have spoken to key authorities in advertising in the US, UK and Europe.

We have been exploring the critical debate: the degree to which TV consumption and TV advertising are shifting and will shift to digital. Recent media coverage has argued traditional TV business models could start to unravel in the medium term. We disagree.

UK consumers have embraced data-hungry services like Facebook and Google, but many also have concerns about privacy online; young people have a more positive view of the trade-off and know how to avoid targeted advertising

Businesses that are conscientious about consumers’ data gain their trust, and the gap between trusted brands and the market as a whole may grow substantially in the future

Despite Edward Snowden’s revelations on ‘Big brother snooping’, the UK Government has secured vast access to communications data without serious challenge to date

In a huge victory for the Union, 55% of Scotland’s voters said ‘No thanks’ to independence

The follow-up to the cross-party pledge on devolution shifts to London and will be dictated by the winner of the General Election on 7 May 2015; the Conservatives are aiming for a wider constitutional settlement for England to resolve the West Lothian question, while Labour will stick with a minimalist approach to preserve Scottish MPs

The 1.6 million votes for independence demonstrate the strength of the separatist movement; we expect the SNP to continue its mission, actively supported by the Scottish Government, and to renew its mandate for independence by winning the May 2016 election with a solid majority

Apple has fulfilled its promise to roll out innovative new products this year, launching Apple Watch into the nascent wearables market and Apple Pay, a new mobile payments service, as well as moving the iPhone into ‘phablet’ territory.

The larger-screened 6 and 6 Plus should revive growth in iPhone sales and ASP, as well as providing another variable to compete in the mid-tier handset segment; Apple Pay further enhances Apple’s lock on its customer base.

Apple Watch’s likely impact is harder to discern; to date sales of smartwatches have been lacklustre but although Apple’s offering is the most commercially viable yet, it still feels like a solution in need of a problem.

Claire Enders set out the implications of a Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum for the media available in Scotland. She critically examines the SNP's plans for a Scottish media, and argues that Scotland's small population would make an independent media hard to sustain. When the effect of a nationalist 'nation-building' project is factored in too, the overall results would be serious costs to the quality of democracy Scots enjoy.

The UK’s love affair with mobile devices continued in Q1 2014, with four times as many smartphones and tablets as PCs shipped during the quarter. Smartphones now account for three quarters of mobile phone sales, and shipments of tablets exceed sales of PCs, though the latter improved during the quarter

The device mix for internet access is changing rapidly: more people now have a smartphone than have a laptop in the home, though the overall PC audience (including desktop) is still larger. For many people, smartphones are becoming the core device to get online, and almost half of all households have a tablet

Commercial revenues derived from mobile devices still trail their share of internet usage but the gap is closing: in Q1, smartphones and tablets generated a third of e-retail sales, while mobile ads represented a fifth of internet search and display advertising

Amazon has announced a new smartphone, the Fire Phone – a premium-priced device with some unique features and solid hardware; only available in the US at first, its high price and small number of apps limit its appeal

Although initial sales are likely to be low and mainly confined to Amazon Prime members, in the short term the purpose of Fire Phone is simple: to drive increased mobile sales of everything Amazon sells

In the longer term, Amazon needs to avoid being locked out of digital media purchasing on smartphones, increasingly the primary connected device – this is a first, although insufficient, step in that direction