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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Carphone Warehouse’s distribution side was very strong in revenue terms in the September quarter, with an underlying (ex-currency) growth of 11%

The company is right to be cautious about the Christmas trading environment, although we believe that it will continue to do well in relative terms at least, and even has a fighting chance of hitting the distribution revenue guidance made back in April

Fixed line revenue growth was hit by churn and spin down at AOL UK, and churn in the non-broadband base. Fixed line EBITDA grew encouragingly as cost savings from LLU kicked in, but overall financial performance was marred by the cost of free laptop and retention offers at AOL UK

The enclosed presentation updates our latest UK TV and display media advertising figures to reflect the dramatic downgrading of the state of the UK economy in recent weeks and days, ending talk of a shallow and short recession. Our central case assumption is of a 2% real GDP decline in 2009, led by a consumption decline of 3%, but we recognise that the UK economy has entered a long and uncertain period of adjustment, with few historical parallels, which will require constant updating of our forecasts as it evolves. On our central case, total UK advertising will be down almost 5% in 2008 to £16.8 billion, with a further decline of 12% in 2009. The declines for display advertising are sharper, and will accelerate the structural changes taking place in the UK media landscape mainly due to the shift to the internet

 

This presentation on the French pay-TV market covers the principal recent developments on that market and the positioning of suppliers, including Vivendi's Canal+, France Télécom's Orange, Numericable and alnets Iliad and SFR. French TV homes are rapidly switching over to 'free' multichannel TV services, but the upside for premium subscriptions is modest. To maintain positioning as the dominant premium content provider, Canal+ is both improving the user experience of its core DTH subscribers (e.g. the new Le Cube), and widening its partnerships with network operators to offer on-demand to Canal+ subscribers. Orange is one significant exception, due to the rivalry initiated by the launch of Orange TV pay services in July 2008. This rivalry was a factor in lower subscription levels for Canal+ in Q3 2008, down to 10.41 million, in addition to the ongoing lure of free, plus the economic downturn and credit crunch. The target of 11.5 million subscriptions by 2011 looks out of reach (Orange Threat to Canal+ Targets [2008-24])

 

NGA in France

20 July 2010

This report on France kicks off a series of reports on Next Generation Access on the continent, also covering Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden, and concluding with a summary. Each country report is focused on the strategic rationale for NGA, and covers the incumbent's principal competitors, the IPTV opportunity, NGA plans or achievements, and the regulatory agenda. For France, our principal conclusion is that plans for NGA respond mainly to a strategic imperative to upgrade IPTV services to HD and multiple feed, with limited direct uplift to ARPU, making these plans generally cautious, tactical and highly focused on IPTV niche markets

UK broadband net additions in Q3 2008 fell sequentially, the first time this has happened in a third quarter. Q3 net adds almost halved year-on-year to 320,000

Kangaroo, the BBC/ITV/Channel 4 VOD project, looks unlikely to see the light of day any time soon, based on the Competition Commission’s (CC) provisional findings announced on 3rd December