Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.
Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.
Recent ABC declines in consumer magazines are not indicative of the accelerated declines experienced in the past 12 weeks
All print media is engulfed in a ‘perfect storm’ of falling consumption, collapsing advertising, and some rising costs
Print advertising will fall by as much as 30% for some print sectors in 2009, pushing previously profitable businesses to the edge
As announced in the January trading update, BT’s Q3 results were hit by poor cost control at Global Services and the identification of some ‘toxic’ contracts. Performance elsewhere continued to be reasonable but helped by a spike at Openreach and non-core business
With a further ‘one-off’ charge against GS EBITDA in Q4 a virtual certainty, we continue to expect problems at Global Services to combine with recessionary pressures and stalling broadband growth to constrain performance well into 2010
A large pension deficit at the actuarial valuation in May looks inevitable. The Digital Britain initiative could pave the way for legitimate government and regulatory support
Ofcom has come up with a new 900MHz spectrum refarming/redistribution proposal, in which only 5MHz of spectrum is taken from Vodafone and O2, as opposed to the 15MHz it previously proposed
We still think that disrupting the voice and text services of existing customers in order to extend the availability of little-used 3G data services makes little sense, and that rearranging a small amount of intensively used spectrum when a far larger amount of unused spectrum is about to become available makes even less sense
Should Vodafone and O2 continue to oppose having their spectrum taken away, as appears likely, the delays to new spectrum auctions are likely to continue
ITV has switched from a turnaround to a survival strategy focused on preserving its core broadcast and content production business. The switch comes against a backdrop of plunging total TV NAR (net advertising revenues) due to the devastating mix of severe recession and major structural decline in the TV advertising medium
ITV plans to cut programme budgets outside regional news by £65 million in 2009 versus 2008 and rising to £135 million by 2011, raising the spectre of a downward spiral in programme budgets, audiences and NAR
We expect the eventual programme budget cuts to be at least double those already planned, given the scale of the unprecedented advertising crisis. Despite this, ITV may just squeeze through without getting sucked into the spiral, but it will be close
This research on next generation access in Spain continues our series of reports on NGA in the Continent
In relation to incumbents in other European markets, Telefónica’s NGA has one of the more aggressive deployment agendas, aiming to cover 40% of homes with FTTB/VDSL by end-2009 (and some FTTH). Its NGA-based Trio Futura retail offers launched in January 2009 after final regulatory clearance. Conditions for Telefónica's NGA in Spain are propitious because retail broadband prices are relatively high and bandwidth commands a premium
VMed’s Q4 results were mixed, with consumer cable revenue remaining stable but cable net adds dropping significantly and opex performance hit by rising energy costs
Group OCF was stable thanks to improvements at Virgin Mobile and Content
We expect performance to prove relatively resilient in 2009, though not to the extent of generating significant growth in underlying annual cash flow
Project Canvas is the BBC/ITV/BT backed proposal for next generation Freeview and Freesat services that embraces IPTV reception, new EPG, home storage and HDTV applications
Setting up Canvas as a not-for-profit consortium and making it non-exclusive to content providers should avoid the competition issues which killed Kangaroo, but many questions remain and technical and regulatory delays could push back the launch to 2011
We do not expect Canvas to make a major difference to non-linear viewing of audiovisual content – its importance lies much more in future-proofing the ‘Free TV’ viewing experience on the terrestrial and satellite platforms
Project Canvas is the BBC/ITV/BT backed proposal for next generation Freeview and Freesat services that embraces IPTV reception, new EPG, home storage and HDTV applications
Setting up Canvas as a not-for-profit consortium and making it non-exclusive to content providers should avoid the competition issues which killed Kangaroo, but many questions remain and technical and regulatory delays could push back the launch to 2011
We do not expect Canvas to make a major difference to non-linear viewing of audiovisual content – its importance lies much more in future-proofing the ‘Free TV’ viewing experience on the terrestrial and satellite platforms
Ofcom has reallocated its Digital Dividend spectrum, allowing the UK to fit in with plans for harmonised usage of the spectrum across Europe, resulting in most of the spectrum being made ‘mobile friendly’, and a little left for digital TV services
The revised plans provide a much improved platform for mobile services in a very attractive spectrum band, with European harmonisation providing the potential for standardised (i.e. cheap) equipment and handsets
On the downside, there will still be insufficient quantity of spectrum to satisfy demand from the mobile operators, with five operators chasing three decent blocks of spectrum, so the auction is likely to be very competitive