Pushing for a premium: European mobile in Q2 2026
Service revenue reversed its slight improvement last quarter, worsening 0.2ppts to -0.9%, as all markets except Spain were flat or in decline.
Incumbents in Europe are increasingly trending towards outperforming peers on net adds, despite higher (and more stable) ARPUs.
EE and Vodafone’s recent launches of premium tiers using 5G slicing are the boldest moves in this direction we have seen in Europe, and present challenges and opportunities going forward.
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Service revenue trends confounded expectations to improve slightly in spite of an expected drag from changes to in-contract pricing.
VodafoneThree appears to be rethinking its speed-tiered pricing on both main brands, perhaps signalling clearer differentiation between them.
For the new government, planning law reform could make a real difference to the sector's investment profile, and hence, its growth ambitions.
Virgin Media O2: Hitting the nadir?
31 July 2026VMO2 suffered a dip in revenue growth in Q2, albeit mainly due to price rise phasing issues and the Daisy integration, with EBITDA growth actually improving.
There were some concerning signs however, with mobile net adds remaining stubbornly low. Full year 2026 guidance is still achievable, but a return to growth in 2027 is challenging.
Regulatory developments have been mixed, and VMO2 will have to be careful what it wishes for as regards the future competitive structure of the sector.
Vodafone: Just in time delivery
30 July 2026With Xavier Niel becoming Vodafone’s largest shareholder, the company will be pleased to be able to demonstrate a solid set of Q1 results.
EBITDA upside is coming from Rest of World and appears largely attributable to the consolidation of Safaricom, but is nonetheless reassuring of the prospect of hard-currency growth.
We continue to have reservations about Vodafone’s value over volume strategy, with the upside of price increases often short-lived, and loss of scale a difficult place to come back from.
BT: Growth in prospect
30 July 2026BT’s revenue and EBITDA growth suffered a dip in Q1, but entirely due to one-off/seasonal factors, with underlying metrics strong across the board.
Ofcom has curtailed Openreach’s ability to compete with altnets, while allowing it to compete with VMO2, a much more established and long-term competitor.
The deconsolidation of International makes the potential for a return to sustainable revenue growth much more apparent, with multiple drags (altnets, voice, price mechanics) now firmly on the wane.
Service revenues improved sequentially but remained negative at -0.7%, with all major markets flat to improving.
Backbook price increases have become quite prolific, but there is a mixed picture on new-customer pricing and considerable ARPU pressure in most markets.
Regulatory push for better coverage in return for longer licences continues to gain momentum, with Portugal the latest to move in this direction.
Service revenue trends confounded expectations to improve slightly in spite of an expected drag from changes to in-contract pricing.
VodafoneThree appears to be rethinking its speed-tiered pricing on both main brands, perhaps signalling clearer differentiation between them.
For the new government, planning law reform could make a real difference to the sector's investment profile, and hence, its growth ambitions.
Virgin Media O2: Hitting the nadir?
31 July 2026VMO2 suffered a dip in revenue growth in Q2, albeit mainly due to price rise phasing issues and the Daisy integration, with EBITDA growth actually improving.
There were some concerning signs however, with mobile net adds remaining stubbornly low. Full year 2026 guidance is still achievable, but a return to growth in 2027 is challenging.
Regulatory developments have been mixed, and VMO2 will have to be careful what it wishes for as regards the future competitive structure of the sector.
Vodafone: Just in time delivery
30 July 2026With Xavier Niel becoming Vodafone’s largest shareholder, the company will be pleased to be able to demonstrate a solid set of Q1 results.
EBITDA upside is coming from Rest of World and appears largely attributable to the consolidation of Safaricom, but is nonetheless reassuring of the prospect of hard-currency growth.
We continue to have reservations about Vodafone’s value over volume strategy, with the upside of price increases often short-lived, and loss of scale a difficult place to come back from.
BT: Growth in prospect
30 July 2026BT’s revenue and EBITDA growth suffered a dip in Q1, but entirely due to one-off/seasonal factors, with underlying metrics strong across the board.
Ofcom has curtailed Openreach’s ability to compete with altnets, while allowing it to compete with VMO2, a much more established and long-term competitor.
The deconsolidation of International makes the potential for a return to sustainable revenue growth much more apparent, with multiple drags (altnets, voice, price mechanics) now firmly on the wane.
Service revenues improved sequentially but remained negative at -0.7%, with all major markets flat to improving.
Backbook price increases have become quite prolific, but there is a mixed picture on new-customer pricing and considerable ARPU pressure in most markets.
Regulatory push for better coverage in return for longer licences continues to gain momentum, with Portugal the latest to move in this direction.