The Premier League has launched its first competitive rights auction since 2018, offering broadcasters a longer four-year cycle and 70 more live games.
Sky could reduce costs by cutting down on one weekly slot, but we expect it to fight for four packages, consistent with its history of prioritising the prominence of its Premier League coverage.
Competitive tension may be the strongest between TNT Sports and DAZN.
Warner Bros. Discovery is grappling with declining legacy cable revenues and its $48 billion debt burden. DTC losses have attenuated but de-leveraging will be trickier post-2023 as many of the easier cost-savings have been achieved.
The US launch of its DTC offering, Max, attempts to dovetail IP from across Warner Bros., alongside Discovery's food, lifestyle and documentary programming, and soon, CNN. Adding sports may prove more challenging.
In Europe, WBD’s rational strategy would be to maintain a mixed distribution strategy, agreeing exclusive deals for its DTC platform with incumbent aggregators such as Sky.
A cooler consumer market sees Sky now facing the same pressures as its SVOD competitors, with a loss of pay-TV subscribers in the UK.
However, Sky is performing better in telecoms in both the UK and Italy. These markets are less susceptible to recession with Sky also benefitting from its position as more of a challenger than an incumbent.
Uncertainty continues to loom over both the sale of its German platform and the upcoming allocation of Serie A rights in Italy.
Service revenue growth almost doubled this quarter to 2.4% aided by price rises in the UK, Spain, and France, but remains well below inflation-levels.
The revenue boost from in-contract price rises will ultimately disappear as customers recontract, dampening the EBITDA outlook as costs continue to rise.
Operators are looking to other strategies to strengthen their positions, including edging up new-customer pricing, M&A, and attracting wholesale MVNO business.
Mobile service revenue growth finally got close to the rate of inflation this quarter, doubling to 7.5% as the operators benefitted from mid-teen price rises.
Growth will wane from here with expected revenue growth of 6% this calendar year and 3% next, with ongoing cost-inflation pressures.
H3G looks set to fare better than others on the top-line in 2024 but its profitability is looking somewhat irredeemable, with negative cashflow even with more normalised capex.
Market revenue growth surged to 2% in Q2, but entirely-and-more driven by price rises, with underlying trends negative across volumes and ARPU.
Broadband volumes in particular turned sharply negative, largely due to a post-lockdown hangover combining with weak economic conditions.
The outlook is bleak: price rise benefits are set to wane and then reverse, and weak volumes will feed through, with economic recovery needed for a return to sustainable growth.
Thanks to Parks (+11% YoY, $2.43 billion), Disney's Q3 operating income remained flat, balancing the decline from Media and Entertainment (-18% YoY, $1.13 billion) as DTC only lost $512 million and linear dropped by 23% ($1.89 billion). No new major growth initiatives were announced but Disney will look to stem DTC losses through Disney+ price rises and a password sharing crackdown.
Major segment resets are looming as Disney looks for new partners for ESPN and possibly buyers for its legacy TV business, ABC.
A difficult remainder of the year will be prolonged if the Hollywood talent unions strike into the autumn and beyond, while Bob Iger stays on as CEO through 2026.
Electronic Arts’ earnings for Q1 2024 delivered strong annual growth across its licensed franchises but also a worrying lag in mobile game revenue due to mobile sector challenges.
EA’s global dominance of sports-based games, and its 700m users, make it a strong candidate to be a ‘strategic partner’ with Disney for ESPN’s reboot as a direct-to-consumer service.
The launch of EA Sports FC24 next month finally sheds FIFA from EA’s largest franchise and promises a dynamic approach to managing football partnerships, but no word on increased margins.
While VMO2's fixed price rises this year were always going to be quite tricky, the 1ppt boost to revenue growth was nonetheless disappointing on the back of price rises of 14%.
Both mobile and EBITDA performances were better, but H2 EBITDA growth will need to be considerably stronger to get to guidance levels, which will be all the more challenging with the loss of the Lycamobile MVNO.
With the erosion of VMO2's differentiators of split contracts and broadband speeds, growth at VMO2 will require addressing new parts of the market—both geographically and across the customer range.
BT got its financial year off to a strong start in Q1, with Group revenue and EBITDA growth of 4%/5% both well on track to hit guidance of merely 'growth'.
Price rises across broadband, mobile and Openreach all landed well, driving strong ARPU growth of 5%/9%/10% respectively, but subscriber growth was likely weak, mainly reflecting a tough environment.
Growth is set to wane across the year as consumer price rise boosts start to re-contract out, leaving Openreach as the main growth driver for as long as the economic environment remains challenging.