Iliad accelerated fixed line subscriber recruitment in 2011 thanks to a substantial increase in capital expenditure on its Révolution box, shrinking its cash flow margin

Iliad’s margin should recover somewhat in 2012 thanks to decreasing box prices. Fibre deployment is being scaled back due to weak demand

Mobile operating losses may be modest this year, but we expect pressure will build up in 2013 as network running costs rise and the termination rate asymmetry drops out

Year-on-year increases of 4% in total revenues, 13% in EBITA before exceptional items and positive net cash for the first time in seven years sees ITV much more strongly placed to handle future challenges post digital switchover

ITV continued to outperform the market by raising its share of TV NAR, whilst the early signs of revival in its content production business were particularly encouraging

Online still poses ITV the toughest challenges with regard to providing it with significant new revenue streams despite strong improvements in the audience metrics – an issue familiar to many

The launch of the fourth mobile network operator in France has so far met with dramatic success, gaining around 1.5 million subscribers in the first month, driven by rock-bottom pricing and a clever mass media PR campaign

Its tariffs are, however, so low that it is very hard to see how they are sustainable in the longer term. In the short term, Free’s economics are boosted by asymmetric voice and text termination rates that result in other operators’ customers effectively subsidising Free subscribers by €5 to €10 a month

This arbitrage is very likely to disappear over the next two years, but Free Mobile can increase its prices when this occurs. Its challenge will be to acquire a critical mass of subscribers before this point, and to retain them thereafter

With the economy drifting sideways, we have set our centre case forecasts at 0-1% average annual growth in TV NAR and assigned a low probability to a repeat of the hyper-cyclical downturn of 2008/9

Comparative international data show a pervasive long term weakness in display advertising trends across the developed world, while emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and Central/Eastern Europe take an increasing share of global budgets

With digital switchover near completion, channel viewing shares across the main commercial groups should stabilise, but internet advertising, especially online video, will exert a negative structural downward pressure on TV NAR over the next three years at least

The launch of Netflix in the UK and Ireland has ignited the debate on the threat from over-the-top video to pay-TV services from Sky, Virgin Media and BT

Unlike in the US, Netflix’s UK prospects and those of competitors such as Lovefilm, are fundamentally limited, given the availability of low priced pay-TV with strong on-demand components included for free

The impact of Netflix on the UK pay-TV industry is therefore likely to be even smaller than the (hard to discern) effect it has had in the US

Iliad is getting ever closer to securing the French 4th 3G licence on terms with which it is happy, with progress slow but seemingly inevitable, and a licence award likely in H2 2008 followed by service launch in 2010

ITV plc set itself the annual target of 3-5% revenue growth up to 2010, then 5% to 2012, in its strategy presentation on September 12th 2007. Within the overall business growth target, ITV set itself a further three sub-targets. Two of these, the doubling of production revenues (currently in the region of £600 million per annum) by 2012 and the fivefold increase in online revenues from about £30 million in 2007 to £150 million in 2010 raised a good few eyebrows to judge by reactions afterwards; but the third target of 38.5% adult SOCI (share of commercial impacts, or ‘eyeballs delivered to advertisers’) by 2012 has drawn almost no attention

BSkyB’s 17.9% shareholding in ITV is likely to lead to a substantial lessening of competition in the all-TV market, according to the provisional findings of the Competition Commission (CC) investigation announced on 2nd October 2007

This report presents our analysis of Neuf Cegetel alongside that of close rival Iliad (which trades under the Free brand). Neuf and Iliad are France’s two leading unbundlers, are both quoted on the Euronext exchange and, since Neuf’s IPO in November 2006, have been assessed largely in parallel by investors. We anticipate Neuf's Investor Day on 12th September will provide analysts with greater detail on Neuf’s strategy to improve by 2010 its profitability to the level enjoyed by Iliad.

The Office of Fair Trading (OFT) has confirmed receipt of a formal request from ITV plc for a review of the Contract Rights Renewal (CRR) remedy and will announce its decision whether to proceed before the year is over