The UK’s ‘zombie’ economy—largely flat since March 2022—is due to the cost-of-living crisis weighing on households, with this exacerbated in 2023 by the rising cost of credit. Real private expenditure growth will be weakly positive in 2024 before strengthening in 2025 as headwinds recede

Our 2023 forecast of a nominal rise but real decline in display advertising was realised, with TV’s revenues falling while digital display rose. Advertiser spend online is justified by the channel’s size and growth, worth an estimated £406 billion in 2023

For 2024, much lower inflation and mildly positive real private expenditure growth points to 3-4% display advertising growth, with a stronger recovery anticipated in 2025

The Premier League will earn 3.5% more per year from its domestic rights for 2025- 29 than today, enough to maintain the gap with rival competitions.

Sky will pay 7% more for as many as 70% more games and cement the prominence of its Premier League coverage, while the Saturday 3pm slot could host the Women’s Super League.

TNT Sports secures its premium profile and Amazon shifts its focus to the Champions League.

DAZN has morphed from a purely OTT to a hybrid sports service, becoming the number two football broadcaster in Europe.

A revamped distribution strategy focused on partnerships with pay-TV operators has extended reach and improved coverage, while ARPU has grown from firmer pricing and more sophisticated packaging.

DAZN is now a more financially sustainable company that should reach breakeven next year and move into profitability thereafter, with additional upside from betting and retailing third-party sports services.

ITV Studios (+9%, £1.52 billion) continues to prop up the company's advertising business (-7%, £1.23 billion)—which faces macro headwinds—helping external revenues for the first nine months of 2023 slightly upwards to £2.53 billion

Q4 is shaping up as a particularly difficult period for advertising with the lead up to Christmas potentially down by 15% YoY

ITVX continues to show growth; given that this is mostly a result of cannibalising ITV's linear audience, there is a ceiling on its potential

Cloud revenues are reflecting patterns of AI integration. As big tech companies jostle for advantage, Microsoft and Azure claim an early lead

Cloud profits remain crucial for wider tech businesses, affecting ability to innovate

Strategies to develop and market cloud-based AI tools are diverging, with uncertainty rife. The ecosystem will shift as the demands of consumers and regulators becomes clearer

DAZN and Sky have renewed their current coverage of Serie A until 2029, at a slightly lower price and with the security of a five-year contract. The ‘league channel’ DTC option was rejected by clubs.

With bids expected soon in France and the UK, DAZN seems determined to become the dominant football broadcaster in Europe.

The Italian auction outcome confirms the real-term erosion of the value of football rights across Europe, but also a more mature approach from the league.

The Premier League has launched its first competitive rights auction since 2018, offering broadcasters a longer four-year cycle and 70 more live games.

Sky could reduce costs by cutting down on one weekly slot, but we expect it to fight for four packages, consistent with its history of prioritising the prominence of its Premier League coverage.

Competitive tension may be the strongest between TNT Sports and DAZN.

Ligue 1 wants to break with its recent history of failed tenders, declining revenues and soured relations with incumbent Canal+.

This year’s would-be bidders have no history of inflating rights costs. Thanks to its distribution deals with DAZN (likely to step in) and beIN, Canal+ may feel secure, while Amazon could let its coverage shrink to a selection of key matches.

The LFP is taking steps to offer a more enticing competition, in partnership with CVC: with fewer teams, a stronger brand and new investors.

After a period of stagnation, many of the core business lines at the US tech mega-caps are back to posting respectable growth figures. The rest of the year will bed in strong revenue growth.

However, the sector is still facing a transition to new priorities. Core business strength should allow firms to shift from cost-cutting to the investment needed to fight the more competitive era they are facing.

AI is the number one focus, but the market for AI tools themselves is still nascent. Applying AI to internal problems has more promise. For instance, it is helping Meta solve its measurement and engagement problems.

ITV’s external revenues saw only a small decline in H1 (-2%), a product of the Studios business’ solid growth (+8%, £1.0 billion) offsetting a very tough period for television advertising, which saw an 11% YoY decline.

Despite the appearance of a contracting market, ITV remains very confident in the continued organic growth of Studios, while the ad market looks to be improving although the full year will be down.

ITVX is growing both in total viewing and the length of viewing session, an outcome of improving the experience and content offering. However, broadcast viewing of ITVX exclusives is lower than might be expected, indicating that cannibalised linear viewing is more of a driver of ITVX growth than ITV seems to suggest.