BBCW is selling its portfolio of magazines. This is the first major disposal of the UK magazine marketplace since Emap sold its consumer magazines division to Bauer in December 2007, valuing the portfolio at 1.8x pro forma revenue, but we expect a lower valuation given the downgrading of the magazine marketplace
Our analysis of the portfolio suggests a mixed bag of relatively resilient adult-focused titles, while Radio Times is a significant cash cow with medium term potential from a more aggressive commercial owner. Our principal concern resides in the viability of the children’s magazine portfolio, where titles are tied to Cbeebies programming, with relatively short life cycles
Bauer is a probable favourite to buy the portfolio, assuming it is picked up by a trade buyer. A post-acquisition process of disposal of non-core assets could provide other trade players with the opportunity to scoop titles that fit well in their portfolios
The digital transition is almost complete in France, five years after the launch of DTT. After undergoing an audience share decline, TF1's share is stabilising. In contrast, M6 improved its audience share during the transition. Both groups are likely to remain dominant in the FTA TV market, thanks to the partial withdrawal of public TV from advertising sales
The advertising recovery in 2010 was strong. Thanks to its diversification, M6 is less exposed to the cycle than TF1, which is rebounding more strongly. M6 is also structurally more profitable
Pay-TV platform growth has stalled, with subscription decline at Canal+ somewhat balanced by growth of low cost packages of IPTV providers. Canal+ will benefit from the withdrawal of Orange from premium TV and a new distribution deal with Orange. Combined with the roll out of new set-tops with PVRs, we are moderately optimistic on Canal+ prospects
Unlike other European TV markets, the digital transition started in Germany 15 years ago and is having little impact on advertising or audience share trends of leading FTA broadcasters, RTL Group and ProSiebenSat.1
RTL Group and ProSiebenSat.1 each have both German and international FTA TV operations, but German FTA TV is more profitable. RTL and ProSieben operate a de facto duopoly in advertising, with broadly stable market shares
Germany has historically been difficult for pay-TV due to the early development of FTA multichannel and ample FTA broadcast of football highlights. News Corp’s Sky Deutschland has improved key metrics, but losses remain significant and achieving break even in the medium term will be a challenge
C&W Worldwide’s performance over the six months to September was strong in terms of cash flow growth, although this was partly due to lower bad debt cost
Revenue decline is easing, but weakness in the mid-market business and reduced public sector spending are weighing on EBITDA
Looking ahead, this should improve somewhat, as the retail mid-market business recovers, but we expect growth in the core business to remain unexciting
CPW’s European handset business had a steady quarter, with growth dipping slightly on the previous quarter but still in line with full year guidance. Smartphone sales are surging, and CPW is orientating its business towards them, but their impact is not unambiguously positive in Europe
The US handset business continued to enjoy strong growth, with this side of their business benefitting strongly from smartphone growth, and this outperformance led the company to increase its full year EBIT guidance
The UK ‘big box’ roll-out is continuing, but no sales figures or indications have been given, and the full year operating loss guidance has been increased, eating up some (but not all) of the outperformance from the US. There appears to still be much experimentation involved at this stage, and even more uncertainty about the eventual success or failure of this new business
This report on Sky Italia and Sky Deutschland, News Corporation’s Continental Europe pay-TV assets, complements our coverage of BSkyB in the UK. We look at the market environment, including regulation and competition. The report also provides subscriber, revenue and earnings forecasts and SWOT analysis.
Ofcom’s decision not to investigate Project Canvas under the Competition Act removes one more regulatory obstacle to the launch of the broadband connected TV service with the brand name YouView
It looks increasingly as if the YouView launch will experience further delay, with autumn 2011 looking steadily more likely as disputes continue over the satisfactoriness of the technical specifications released by YouView for meeting manufacturer needs
Although backed by powerful broadcast and ISP interests, YouView faces stiff challenges to achieving widespread adoption among ‘Freeverse’ homes, with much depending on YouView’s ability both to deliver consistent product quality and to get its message across
CPW saw growing revenue but falling volume in its core European handset retail business, as contract handset growth outperformed prepay
We believe that this is in line with a slightly subdued market, with consumer confidence quite weak across a number of European countries
CPW’s US business did much better, growing at 30%, and it is this strength that leaves us confident in the group’s ability to have a strong full year
UK consumer magazines continue to be squeezed by every consumption, technology and market trend, yet we believe the sector, while rebasing in scale, continues to offer unique attributes as a media experience for consumers and marketers
Circulations are falling, and in the context of digital media usage leading titles in each magazine genre are not just typically gaining market share, but emerging as the only ‘must have’ brand for consumers and advertisers
Publishers with multiple titles in mid-table positions may be able to draw short-term margin from some of them, but long-term investment plays increasingly need to be at the top of the pile
Subject to BBC Trust approval, Canvas looks almost certain to launch in spring 2011 after the OFT decided that it did not have the jurisdiction to review Canvas under the merger provisions of the Enterprise Act 2002. The OFT decision does not rule out complaints on other grounds, but the chances of persuading the regulators look very small
The launch of Canvas promises to strengthen significantly the free-to-air digital terrestrial platform, otherwise very limited compared with satellite and cable platforms in terms of bandwidth, but mass adoption poses numerous challenges and it is open to question whether Canvas will ever extend to more than half the DTT base
In the long term, it is hard not to see Canvas as an interim step in the growing convergence between the TV screen and the internet, raising the question of how successfully its PSB TV-centric approach can adapt to the coming challenges of the full blown digital age